All good things must come to an end, and after one of the most exciting AFL seasons in memory (if you ignore the finals) the 2017 AFL season is about to hit its climax. But which way will the big game go? Will it be the local underdogs taking the spoilsContinue reading »
Kicking six goals in a final is extremely hard to do, but for Stevie J it was basically worthless
Finals in the last ten years aren’t often decided by big bags of goals, instead they are typified by total team performances, grinding their opponents into submission. Indeed, since 2008 six or more goals have been kicked in a final just eight times, and the list of names is anContinue reading »
HPN’s AFL Semi Final Previews – Can the Cats or Eagles spring an upset?
Geelong v Sydney Although they are the away side, and finished the Home and Away season a few rungs lower on the ladder, practically everyone outside of the 3220 postcode has the Swans as raging favourites this week. The HPN Team Ratings agrees that the Swans should be favourites, but toContinue reading »
HPN Finals Preview – Port Adelaide v West Coast
Whilst the overall HPN Team Ratings may paint this game as a bit of a mismatch, the component scores are somewhat more favourable to the Eagles than first meets the eye and we must remember our prior analysis of the strange flat-tracky distribution of Port Adelaide’s apparent strength. As weContinue reading »
HPN Finals Preview – Can Essendon bomb on the Swans parade?
As cold as the Swans were in starting 2017, they have finished equally hot. The same can be said for Essendon – just over the course of two years, and largely due to non on-field factors. On paper, the Swans finished the year as a considerably better side than theContinue reading »
HPN Finals Preview – Can The Tigers Again Be A Force In September?
Richmond and Geelong have both been perceived by the wider footballing public as being teams with fatal flaws or issues throughout this season. Both are considered heavily dependent on the top end of their lists, led by players with fair claims to being the best in the game. However, bothContinue reading »
HPN Finals Preview – Can The Giants Clip The Crows’ Wings?
A lot of ink has been spilt about how GWS saw their season nearly wiped out by a massive injury toll, but this match is more likely to be shaped by a singular Adelaide injury. Due to injury and suspension absences, it has been difficult to get a grip on justContinue reading »
The 2017 PAV All Australian Team
Selection Rules Instead of picking the top 40 players from 2017, and picking a team from there, we have decided to go down a slightly different path instead. Out of interest, here are the top 40 players according to Player Approximate Value (PAV): As you can see, there just aren’tContinue reading »
Introducing Player Approximate Value (PAV)
One of the oldest questions in global team sport is: what is a player really worth? To come up with a workable answer for this, we have leant heavily on work undertaken by Bill James, Doug Drinen and Chase Stuart, and looked at several different sporting codes and how theyContinue reading »
Some Rise, Some Fall: All Are Flawed in 2017
As the 2017 Home & Away season winds to its inevitable conclusion, movement returns to the HPN Team Ratings. The Swans are beginning to crest towards the “Premiership Contender” part of the HPN Team Ratings, which we loosely define as an overall team rating of more than 105% and individualContinue reading »