The Carlton 5, and Menzel to Adelaide #afltrades

Carlton essentially recruit five fringe players in exchange for Troy Menzel and Lachie Henderson and draft pick scraps.

Menzel for Kerridge

Carlton value in: 1713 points – Sam Kerridge (823 points), Pick 28 – 890 points.

Adelaide value in: 1351 points – Troy Menzel.

Verdict: Fair, and despite popular perceptions, in Carlton’s favour. Carlton get back 1.27 points for every point given up.

Plowman, Lamb, Sumner and Philips to Carlton

Carlton value in: 3081 points -Lachie Plowman (676 points), Jed Lamb (619 points), Liam Sumner (310 points), Andrew Phillips (125 points), Pick 8 (1350 points).

GWS value in: 2390 points Geelong’s 2016 1st round pick ~9 (1270 points), Pick 28 (890 points), Pick 77 (230 points), Pick 95 (0 points).

Verdict: Fair, just, but in Carlton’s favour. Carlton get back 1.29 points for every point they give up.

Carlton have been about the busiest team in this trade week, with all rumours seemingly heading to Lygon Street. Today the Blues consumated two trades, one seemingly a long time coming, and one that started as a rumour yesterday and quickly built steam.

The most contentious part of either of these trades is probably about the value of Menzel. Popular perception places Menzel as a much better player than Sam Kerridge. Perhaps it’s Menzel’s original draft pick, or maybe his highlight reel, or the fact that he represented hope for a Carlton side desperately lacking it. Let’s remember that Kerridge himself isn’t chopped liver; like Menzel he is a former Rising Star nominee, and even has Brownlow Votes to his name.

However, pick 28 also constitutes a decent shot at another player, so the question is actually about Menzel’s future contribution versus Kerridge and pick 28’s future contribution. Putting aside the hilarity of Carlton seemingly systematically offloading forwards over in the last two years, the more likely outcome is that Carlton would get more from pick 28 and Kerridge than Menzel alone, even if Menzel is better than Kerridge in isolation, which he might not actually be.

But of course, Carlton didn’t get pick 28 just for the sake of it. The Menzel move was partly about securing trade material to bring in four fringe members of GWS’ squad, players who Stephen Silvagni presumably rates having worked at Olympic Park previously.

Carlton are trying to rebuild their list with players less unknown and risky than draft picks. The outcome of this pair of trades hinges entirely on the future outputs of guys with little track record so far. If at least two of these players (realistically, Plowman and either Sumner or Lamb) turn out to have a long and productive career at the Blues they’ll probably have won the trade.

Each of the four have potential roles at Visy Park. Lamb will compete with Kerridge for Menzel’s old spot, and potentially Yarran’s too. Plowman should slot into their back six, especially with players like Simpson and Jamison reaching the end of their careers. Phillips will provide ruck depth, and compete with Wood for the second ruck spot behind the re-signed Kruezer. Finally, Sumner should at worst provide competition for a midfield slot, in a midfield that needs all the competition it can get.

The sidebar to this move for the Giants is that they’ve dealt themselves out of a lot of academy bidding points. Pick 8 is worth 1551 points, pics 28 is worth 677, and they’re momentarily nowhere near being able to afford the likely top ten bids for Hopper and Kennedy. We assume they are confident that the exchange for Treloar will get them back the material they need.

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