This is the second post in HPN’s series about the 2016 AFL draft and trade season.
Spoiler alert: Tom Mitchell is a very good football player. HPN once saw Mitchell get 64 disposals in a NEAFL game – an impressive amount at any level. As Figuring Footy has pointed out, Mitchell was probably the fifth best midfielder at Sydney last season, but that’s better than nearly any other club’s best fifth midfielder.
— Robert Younger (@figuringfooty) October 9, 2016
Hawthorn currently has pick 14 – worth 1132 points in the new HPN pick chart. If the trade was simply Mitchell for pick 14, the value proposition appears to be pretty fair. Hawthorn would gain 305 points in value, around the equivalent of pick 75.
Hawthorn have, as most analysts have pointed out, a rapidly aging list, but with key younger cogs. The Hawks are seemingly stuck between contending for a flag and a full rebuild for their next premiership winning team. Getting Mitchell allows them to do both; at just 23 they should be able to get nearly a decade of top quality football out of him. Not to mention another prolific Mitchell in the midfield.
The Swans lose Mitchell, but will gain a pretty high pick in a pretty even draft. The Swans have question marks in some positions, but with Luke Parker, Kieran Jack and the emerging Isaac Heeney, are pretty sorted for inside midfielders who can go forward and create scoring opportunities.
Verdict: Fair trade, but slightly in Hawthorn’s favour (+305 points).