Treloar to Collingwood – almost perfectly balanced #afltrades

Treloar for two high picks is a perfect blockbuster trade.

Collingwood value in: 3333 points (Adam Treloar 2443 points, pick 28 890 points)

GWs value in: 3300 points (Pick 7 – 1400 points, 2016 pick ~7 – 1400 points, pick 62 – 500 points)

Verdict: Actually a little bit beautiful (Collingwood gain 1.01 points of value for what they give up, but depending on where they finish in 2016)

Adam Treloar is one of the most valuable players in the competition. When analysing trades by their projected future output, 22-year-olds who are already established stars and who play games every week are simply the most valuable commodity going. They are what you want from spending a very high draft pick, and they provide that value without the risk associated with a new draftee. Simply put, Adam Treloar is among about a dozen players we rate as worth pick 1 or more in a straight swap (others include Wingard, Fyfe, Hannebery, Dangerfield, Heppell, Cameron, Gaff, Talia and Martin).

It was going to take a bit for the Pies to come up with fair value. Collingwood’s pick 7 and their first pick next year gets to that mark along with another late pick (we value their 2016 pick at 7 but the trade still looks good if they climb the ladder). The reason for this is that pick 7 has an expected yield of 140 games, GWS are getting that twice. The player taken at pick 7 may not become a superstar, as genuine star power is a bit of a random walk, but they’re pretty likely to give their club a good long term contribution. And having two shots gives them less risk and a better chance of getting that average yield.

There’s actually not too much more to say. Treloar is very likely to be a star for a decade, GWS are getting fair compensation for a player of his calibre who wants to leave and will be able to reinvest that how they choose. Sometimes the system just works.

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