Brendon Ah Chee Heads Even Further West

Brendon Ah Chee has been rendered a fringe player by the strong Port Adelaide midfield, but if there is a saving grace for his prospects going forward it is his strong performances in the SANFL. In 2017 Ah Chee took out the Port Adelaide Best and Fairest, as well as coming second (to Mitch Grigg) in the Magarey Medal.

Ah Chee Player Card2

According to the HPN Team Ratings, Port had the most dominant AFL midfield (with respect to ball movement and relative preponderance of inside-50s) in 2017, and Ah Chee found himself behind maybe the hardest combination to break into.

At West Coast, he should find an easier time playing senior football. West Coast’s overall midfield is a bit of a question mark with the departure of two Brownlow medallists and was below middling in terms of quality even with them. If Ah Chee can’t break in, he will likely find himself out of the league fairly quickly.

Ah Chee Trade

Ah Chee’s current value is quite minimal due to his significant amount of time in the SANFL rather than AFL. PAPLEY suggests that he is actually the third most valuable component to this trade, which dances around the border of fair and unfair but at such a low overall value it’s all a bit academic.

All three commodities involved are relatively low-yield gambles that if one comes off, they will win the trade in the long run. As such, West Coast has a better chance of winning the trade by having two chances to Port’s one.

Ah Chee Similar

Players who project at around 19 future PAVs from the age of 24 start to hit the “potential delistee” zone, with very few stars emerging from this region. There are some relative success stories (Francis, Clarkson, Edwards), but most players with such a low prediction at this age end up realising it.

Verdict: Unfair trade in favour of West Coast but low overall prospects so it doesn’t really matter

Note: This post is part of a series of posts using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Elsewhere, you can read much more about the method and theory behind PAV and also about PAPLEY, the projection method used to derive expected future PAVs. This method expresses both picks and players in terms of expected future value allowing them to be compared on this common basis.

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