Gold Coast hands out second round picks like candy

There’s more deals to come, but Gold Coast have swapped picks with West Coast in a manner that suggests they simply didn’t want the collection of second round picks they accrued last year.

suns pick trade.PNG

The prize for the Suns is a future first round pick and to obtain it they turned over twice as much draft pick value as they got back. Looking at the future picks, rated here as ~13 and ~20, This’ll be a fair swap in hindsight if West Coast slide to about 17th in 2018, and it’ll be even money if West Coast finish last and the Suns win the flag.

The rationale for the Suns here is probably that they have more deals to make, and they still have good picks in this year’s draft (currently 2, 13, 24 and now 50). Picks 26 and 37 had sat as the fifth and sixth selections the Suns would have used, so it’s possible they didn’t want to make that many live selections and probably valued them a lot lower than their actual expected future yield.

Verdict: Draft pick fire sale

Note: This post is part of a series of posts using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Elsewhere, you can read much more about the method and theory behind PAV and also about PAPLEY, the projection method used to derive expected future PAVs. This method expresses both picks and players in terms of expected future value allowing them to be compared on this common basis.


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