You don’t need HPN to tell you what to make of Sam Gibson for 91

Sam Gibson gets a chance to continue his career if he’s good enough to play senior footy in the Crows midfield. He will likely play a lot of SANFL footy. He’s 31, he’s probably not got a lot of footy left in him, but he’s likely got some.


Given North just delisted Gibson, the trade here is truly a token one. Pick 91 is worth noting, what we’ve called a “notional list value” we give as a minimum yield expectation for all picks past 90 and all players with no value.


If Gibson plays another 15 or so games he will likely outperform what might be expected from a live pick at pick 91 – which it probably won’t be for North this year. Even if he doesn’t play a game, it’s a nil-all draw.

Verdict: Notionally unfair trade, but neither party cares.

Note: This post is part of a series of posts using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Elsewhere, you can read much more about the method and theory behind PAV and also about PAPLEY, the projection method used to derive expected future PAVs. This method expresses both picks and players in terms of expected future value allowing them to be compared on this common basis.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *