Nathan Wilson is a very good half-back and will likely contend for All-Australian honours in the coming years. Wilson is young, has one of the best kicks in the competition, is pretty damn quick and is also versatile on the field. Wilson has really broken out in the last 18 or so months – what we see now might only be a shadow of his potential. He’s gone to Fremantle in an exchange which approximates but doesn’t quite reach what we project as his future value.
Wilson is worth around pick 13 on paper, with a bit of variance given his age. Fremantle had no pick in that range and instead have supplemented their (likely early) second round pick with s minor swap in the late rounds this year.
Pick ~23 next year was at the lower reaches of reasonable value for Wilson anyway, but the pick 57 is a small bonus because as the third pick the Giants currently hold, which they will likely use.
Fremantle’s 2017 draft hand continues to be pick 5 and a bunch of selections after 40; HPN remains very interested in their moves from here.
Verdict: Fair trade, but Fremantle will be happier
Note: This post is part of a series of posts using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Elsewhere, you can read much more about the method and theory behind PAV and also about PAPLEY, the projection method used to derive expected future PAVs. This method expresses both picks and players in terms of expected future value allowing them to be compared on this common basis.