Since 2014 HPN has trawled the internet in order to find out which club is meant to pick which player in the upcoming draft, in lieu of our lack of knowledge about junior footy.
This is HPN’s fourth annual attempt at the Consensus Phantom Draft. In most years the method is within the two or three most accurate phantom drafts with respect to the final place that a given player is selected at, however the method becomes increasingly more accurate as the time until draft day narrows.
The method is simple – we have assembled eight draft rankings in order to sort the prospective draftees. We’ll use this to identify which players and clubs there is consensus on, and where the experts disagree. HPN looks at two different measures: the average draft position and the “mode” – the position a player is most .
At the end of the draft, we’ll take a look back and see which phantom drafters have been the most accurate. Last year, Callum Twomey nailed the first round, and Brett Anderson was the most accurate across the whole draft.
The phantom drafts/power rankings we’ve used so far are:
- Bishop/Matt Balmer at Bigfooty and elsewhere
- Josh Elliott and Maddy Friend at The Roar
- Chris Doerre/Knightmare at ESPN
- Footyprophet’s collective power rankings
- Brent Sternberg at The Sideline Report
- Riley Beveridge at Fox Sports
- The Sporting News
- Cal Twomey and Mick Ablett at afl.com.au
We are not re-publishing their work here in full because we don’t want to steal traffic away from these sites, and want them to get fair reward for their hard work. If you want to read the reasons for all the selections made by those writers above, we encourage that you have a read.
We encourage readers to bring new phantoms and power rankings to our attention, especially those at independent websites which we might have missed. Hit us up @hurlingpeople on twitter, via email at hurlingpeoplenow [at] gmail.com or via the comments below.
Here, then, is the first version of the Consensus Phantom Draft:
|1||Brisbane Lions||Luke Davies-Uniacke||2.0||1||4||2|
|4||North Melbourne||Adam Cerra||4.8||2||7||7|
|7||St Kilda||Darcy Fogarty||8.6||4||12||12|
|8||St Kilda||Nick Coffield||9.0||6||11||9|
|9||Western Bulldogs||Aaron Naughton||9.1||5||14||6|
|13||West Coast||Charlie Constable||15.1||8||20||20|
|15||Brisbane Lions||Nathan Murphy||16.8||11||24||15|
|16||Western Bulldogs||Oscar Allen||17.0||13||38||13|
|19||Gold Coast||Sam Hayes||23.6||10||38||26|
|21||West Coast||Lachlan Fogarty||29.0||15||49||17|
|22||Richmond (F/S)||Patrick Naish||29.5||16||41||38|
|23||Brisbane (Academy)||Connor Ballenden||29.8||18||40||38|
|25||North Melbourne||Matthew Ling||32.9||22||49||38|
|27||West Coast||Zac Bailey||33.6||19||49||38|
|33||West Coast||Harrison Petty||39.4||24||49||38|
|35||St Kilda||Dylan Moore||40.3||31||49||38|
|38||West Coast||Brandon Starcevich||41.0||37||49||38|