The Race to the AFLW Finals

Let’s take a walk through the last two rounds and what each team needs to be worried about. Broadly speaking there are three main paths for the last two weeks to follow:

  • The Bulldogs aiming to win one game and lock up a grand final spot.
  • The Crows and Brisbane trying to build percentage in games they’re favoured in, with the Crows also needing other results to qualify.
  • Melbourne and GWS needing to beat the Bulldogs to have any chance of qualifying.

The short version is the Dogs need to beat GWS, while four other sides have to win both games plus maintaining or improving their percentage.

According to the HPN Team Ratings, here’s how strong we think each team is coming into round 6:

ClubDefensive ScoreOffensive ScoreMidfield ScoreOverall Rating vs League Average
Adelaide Crows116.78107.4675.0099.75
Brisbane Lions115.1086.93116.71106.25
GWS Giants98.3893.02110.01100.47
Western Bulldogs107.68143.07111.88120.87

We could see a grand finalist on 4 wins and 3 losses. There’s a narrow path for Brisbane if they drop a game from here. Carlton and Fremantle have a specific set of results they need which basically involve themselves, each other, Collingwood and the Bulldogs winning and the other contenders losing.

Friday round 6 – Adelaide v Fremantle

Adelaide need to win here to stay alive and put pressure on the rest of the pack and they need a small percentage gain to get past GWS. A loss eliminates them. GWS have a harder draw, but the percentage gap between the two sides is (roughly) only one or two goals. As noted above, the Fremantle path is very specific and unlikely – but for all Dockers fans still existent.

A quick side note: to us here at HPN having percentage as the primary tiebreaker where the competition is set up like this feels obtuse. It would make more sense that head to head record was considered as the primary way of deciding which of the two tied teams is actually better.

Saturday round 6 – Brisbane v Collingwood

As well as needing to win, percentage is very relevant for the Lions. In both weeks they play before their relevant rivals on this measure, so just need to put on as much of a score as possible.

They also need to stay ahead of the Demons to guarantee their spot (currently 121.8% to 102.7%). They can also try to make up ground on the Bulldogs (176.8%) in case they drop a game. They probably have about a seven-goal break on the Demons and are roughly ten goals adrift of the Bulldogs.

Saturday night round 6 – GWS v Western Bulldogs

The crunch game of the round. The Bulldogs are the presumptive grand final hosts at this point. They sit 50% and a win ahead of Brisbane in second, and they are virtually certain of making the grand final as long as they don’t lose both games from here.

However, their match against GWS is extremely crucial this weekend because losing that leaves them vulnerable to being jumped by any of four other teams. If Brisbane have already won earlier in the day, and if Melbourne win after this game, then a loss to GWS in Canberra would turn the Dogs’ round 7 game into sudden-death.

For GWS, their season is over if they lose.

Sunday round 6 – Carlton v Melbourne

Melbourne keep their chances alive with a win, but also need to hope for the Bulldogs to have lost to GWS, or Brisbane have either lost or only narrowly won. They need to look to pump up their percentage, and ideally win by about 6 goals more than Brisbane’s result.

Looking ahead to Round 7

By this stage we’ll know a lot more. A Dogs win leaves them virtually unassailable save for big Brisbane results putting them ahead on percentage for hosting duties.

If the Dogs have lost to GWS, then potentially both spots are up for grabs including hosting privileges. With a Dogs loss to GWS, any of Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne who also win will be right in the hunt for either spot, alongside GWS. A plausible post-round 6 ladder with a Dogs loss and those three sides winning is:

Western Bulldogs 16
Brisbane Lions 16
Melbourne 16
GWS Giants 14
Adelaide Crows 14
Fremantle 8
Carlton 8
Collingwood 4

This is the most interesting scenario so we’ll look at round 7 under it alone. Remember, it’s just how things look if GWS beat the Bulldogs and the other favourites win. With a Bulldogs win in round 6 all that matters for other sides is winning into second place.

Friday night Round 7 – Brisbane v GWS

Whoever wins this match temporarily jumps the Bulldogs into top spot, while the loser is eliminated from grand final contention. Percentage is relevant in either case – for Brisbane against the Bulldogs and Dees, and for GWS against Adelaide.

Saturday night Round 7 – Western Bulldogs v Melbourne

Whoever wins will temporarily be in a grand final position along with the winner of Brisbane and GWS the night before. The loser will be eliminated.

If GWS won, then the winner of this game will host the final. If Brisbane won, hosting is determined by percentage – likely the Dogs hosting the Lions, or the Lions hosting the Dees.

Sunday Round 7 – Collingwood v Adelaide

Adelaide will need GWS to have won both games, otherwise this will already be a dead rubber. If GWS are occupying second on the ladder after beating the Dogs and the Lions, then the Crows need to jump them with a win over the Pies. Percentage may or may not be relevant for them – that all depends on the margins in earlier games because they may already be ahead of GWS in percentage terms.

AFLW PAV – Post Round 5

We will end the post by having a super quick look at PAV as it sits in the AFLW.

PlayerClubPAVOffPAVDefPAVMidPAV TotalMatches
Emma KearneyWB14.3012.6317.3444.275
Daisy PearceMELB7.635.1722.5435.345
Ellie BlackburnWB13.499.2011.5634.265
Brooke LochlandWB25.901.166.8033.875
Chelsea RandallADEL8.5218.636.3233.475
Kate LutkinsBL3.6422.525.7831.945
Elise O'DeaMELB6.436.2315.7428.405
Courtney GumGWS8.576.3112.4927.375
Dana HookerFRE7.887.9810.6726.535
Emma KingCOLL13.633.687.8025.115
Ebony MarinoffADEL4.949.2610.7424.945
Caitlyn EdwardsCOLL12.874.526.8624.255
Ruth WallaceADEL15.822.634.6823.135
Alicia EvaGWS3.646.2513.2223.115
Christina BernardiCOLL14.903.324.8723.095
Phoebe McWilliamsGWS17.462.343.0022.805
Jess WuetschnerBL13.893.215.1222.225
Amanda FarrugiaGWS4.937.809.4822.215
Aasta O'ConnorWB8.306.157.3621.815
Kara DonnellanFRE2.638.6310.2921.555
Stephanie ChiocciCOLL8.475.497.3721.325
Bonnie ToogoodWB14.163.213.6821.055
Kirsty LambWB5.404.3210.8820.605
Jamie StantonBL3.647.819.1220.575
Karen PaxmanMELB4.824.6011.1020.525
Sabrina Frederick-TraubBL9.624.795.6020.015
Alexandra AndersonBL4.337.328.3319.975
Richelle CranstonMELB10.100.848.9819.915
Rhiannon MetcalfeADEL9.732.917.0319.685
Brittany GibsonBL7.293.668.3319.275
Chloe MolloyCOLL4.4012.931.8719.205
Hannah ScottWB3.2411.803.9118.955
Maddison GayCARL5.673.269.8118.755
Moana HopeCOLL16.250.861.4618.574
Tahlia RandallBL7.51-0.6911.7418.565
Jessica Dal PosGWS3.895.219.4318.545
Emily BatesBL2.057.478.9118.435
Ebony AntonioFRE4.2011.592.4618.255
Jenna BrutonWB6.755.855.5118.105
Kate HoreMELB9.442.176.4618.085
Libby BirchWB0.0016.651.4218.075
Shelley ScottMELB9.840.657.5718.065
Jasmine GarnerCOLL7.626.363.9717.955
Erin McKinnonGWS8.501.567.6517.715
Rebecca BeesonGWS6.235.645.6117.485
Jaimee LambertCOLL5.764.636.9817.365
Hayley MillerFRE5.253.388.5317.165
Jacinda BarclayGWS11.682.762.6817.135
Angelica GogosWB3.511.8611.6717.045
Tegan CunninghamMELB12.46-0.114.5816.935
Britt TullyGWS4.152.3310.4416.925
Breann MoodyCARL4.994.377.5216.875
Sarah HoskingCARL3.784.678.3016.755
Aisling UtriWB8.365.283.1016.755
Emma ZielkeBL2.733.929.9416.605
Sarah AllanADEL1.1413.731.6616.535
Gabby O'SullivanFRE7.882.236.2516.365
Jenna McCormickADEL12.781.312.2116.304
Erin PhillipsADEL11.261.373.6116.243
Amelia BardenCOLL8.802.704.6316.145
Ashlee AtkinsFRE8.802.664.6316.095
Cora StauntonGWS9.870.964.8715.705
Elle BennettsGWS4.153.677.6415.465
Lara FilocamoFRE2.106.816.1215.035
Tayla HarrisCARL7.881.575.4714.924
Darcy VescioCARL8.193.243.2614.695
Ashleigh GuestMELB2.215.976.4614.655
Angela FoleyADEL2.1310.162.3314.624
Belinda SmithFRE1.319.363.8514.525
Justine MulesADEL3.654.675.8614.185
Jess DuffinCOLL4.408.301.3114.014
Lisa WebbFRE5.253.644.8913.794
Kaitlyn AshmoreBL6.832.234.6313.695
Melissa CaulfieldFRE7.882.443.1413.465
Aliesha NewmanMELB6.231.225.9813.425
Breanna KoenenBL2.287.173.8813.335
Eloise JonesADEL6.693.143.4713.305
Shannon CampbellBL0.919.432.7813.134
Stephanie CainFRE3.685.054.3713.105
Monique ContiWB5.403.693.9313.025
Nicola StevensCARL2.737.223.0613.015
Alison DownieCARL4.315.413.2212.945
Katie BrennanWB10.120.891.9312.943
Cassie DavidsonFRE0.5310.012.2912.835
Leah KaslarBL0.519.562.5412.615
Naomi FerresWB2.704.755.1212.575
Melissa KuysCOLL5.424.073.0412.535
Kate McCarthyBL4.551.666.2912.515
Brittany BonniciCOLL1.696.374.4312.505
Nicole HildebrandBL0.918.452.7612.125
Nat ExonBL3.474.204.4312.104
Jordan ZanchettaBL2.284.005.7812.055
Gabriella PoundCARL1.058.312.5611.915
Amy LavellFRE9.980.731.1811.895
Kerryn HarringtonCARL1.685.984.0111.685
Dayna CoxADEL1.837.352.2811.454
Melissa HickeyMELB2.213.395.8011.395
Katie LoynesCARL3.992.205.1311.324
Cecilia McIntoshCOLL3.724.263.0911.075
Lauren PearceMELB5.421.014.6111.044
Shae AudleyCARL2.311.736.8810.925
Laura DuryeaMELB-0.4010.600.7010.894
Ellie BrushGWS1.826.542.4910.855
Katherine SmithMELB0.805.274.6610.745
Sharni WebbBL3.871.535.1010.505
Pepa RandallGWS1.306.522.6610.475
Nicola BarrGWS-0.268.352.2810.375
Jess HoskingCARL2.313.784.1910.294
Courtney CrameyADEL4.563.162.5310.262
Emma SwansonGWS1.564.633.9310.124
Nicole CallinanWB4.052.723.2910.075
Ashley SharpFRE4.463.142.379.984
Evangeline GoochFRE1.057.511.419.975
Phoebe MonahanGWS-0.788.871.829.914
Stevie-Lee ThompsonADEL1.226.521.979.715
Alicia JanzFRE3.811.464.359.625
Tiarna ErnstWB2.
Sophie LiCARL1.473.544.259.255
Emma GrantCOLL1.694.632.899.215
Deni VarnhagenADEL-0.305.344.079.105
Sarah PerkinsADEL6.010.592.469.065
Lauren SparkWB0.547.441.008.985
Danielle HardimanCARL0.847.000.928.754
Lily MithenMELB1.411.815.548.755
Meg DownieMELB0.204.993.438.624
Meg HutchinsCOLL6.600.011.998.603
Erin HoareMELB3.52-
Bianca JakobssonMELB0.405.073.048.515
Lauren BrazzaleCARL2.731.314.398.434
Jessica SedunaryADEL3.651.263.508.415
Lauren TesorieroCOLL2.711.933.558.184
Iilish RossCOLL-0.688.110.688.115
Rheanne LuggADEL1.524.402.118.024
Arianna ClarkeBL0.466.001.527.975
Tilly Lucas-RoddCARL1.054.522.367.934
Alex WilliamsFRE0.266.840.697.795
Aimee SchmidtGWS4.930.642.057.624
Brianna DaveyCARL0.844.801.737.362
Tanya HetheringtonGWS-0.527.480.217.175
Hayley WildesWB2.431.992.707.124
Jasmyn HewettADEL2.213.711.036.955
Marijana RajcicADEL0.913.811.966.683
Emma HumphriesMELB2.012.072.506.583
Katherine Gillespie-JonesCARL1.373.801.376.534
Stacey BarrFRE4.460.651.396.504
Jasmine GriersonMELB1.413.001.966.364
Isabel HuntingtonWB5.73-0.490.786.022
Lauren ArnellCARL3.150.672.005.823
Harriet CordnerMELB1.311.473.015.792
Sophie ConwayBL4.78-0.531.435.683
Leah MascallFRE1.312.172.015.505
Jessica AllanADEL2.212.600.595.404
Sophie CaseyCOLL0.343.961.005.303
Sarah D'ArcyCOLL3.050.591.665.303
Georgia BevanADEL1.522.521.235.274
Catherine PhillipsMELB0.201.653.325.185
Renee TomkinsGWS0.842.941.084.862
Jodie WhiteFRE2.101.041.514.644
Emily McGuireFRE3.220.450.844.513
Renee ForthGWS0.261.602.624.474
Stacey LivingstoneCOLL0.003.590.834.422
Georgia GeeCARL1.471.111.784.374
Alyssa MifsudMELB3.42-0.030.954.342
Kate ShierlawCARL2.680.131.504.314
Abbey HolmesADEL2.431.290.504.223
Madeleine BoydGWS0.192.690.973.852
Eliza HynesCOLL2.120.191.523.822
Tara MorganCOLL-0.343.910.143.712
Ruby SchleicherCOLL-1.354.630.343.624
Kim RennieWB2.020.201.383.602
Anna TeagueMELB0.402.790.213.402
Maddy CollierGWS0.522.150.713.382
Deanna BerryWB0.540.861.933.343
Anne HatchardADEL2.130.700.443.272
Brooke PattersonMELB0.401.781.003.193
Jodie HicksGWS0.780.551.843.174
Sally RileyADEL1.221.070.863.152
Gemma HoughtonFRE0.921.220.742.882
Bailey HuntWB0.542.090.232.873
Natalie PlaneCARL0.211.630.992.832
Laura BaileyWB1.350.101.232.682
Talia RadanADEL-0.613.160.012.572
Kirsten McLeodWB0.810.661.042.522
Bree WhiteCOLL-0.681.851.212.383
Isabella AyreBL0.910.231.102.243
Brianna GreenFRE0.531.000.702.231
Tayla McAuliffeFRE0.330.840.832.001
Tiah HaynesFRE0.001.790.151.941
Courtney WebbCARL0.420.540.941.902
Madeline KerykCARL0.001.480.361.841
Sophie ArmitsteadADEL0.000.591.211.802
Maddy GuerinMELB0.400.001.371.771
Sarah DarganCOLL0.000.990.681.673
Eden ZankerMELB1.10-0.030.591.661
Holly WhitfordCOLL-0.340.431.541.633
Emma MackieWB0.810.560.231.612
Megan HuntBL0.230.600.771.601
Rachael KillianADEL0.300.910.341.552
Daria BannisterWB0.81-0.030.771.541
Reni HicksCARL-0.211.410.311.504
Claudia WhitfortMELB0.400.050.771.231
Bridie KennedyCARL0.
Sarah LastCARL0.210.690.131.032
Gabby CollingwoodBL0.000.530.350.884
Philippa SmythGWS0.060.540.260.871
Emma PittmanBL0.230.040.490.761
Katie-Jayne GrieveCARL0.000.250.360.611
Rebecca PrivitelliGWS-
Louise StephensonGWS-0.520.030.42-0.072
Jade de MeloFRE-0.26-0.060.08-0.241
Jessica AndersonWB-0.27-0.07-0.02-0.361

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