Richmond are Stenglers for fourth round draft positions

Facilitated by a swap of late picks to acquire pick 68, Adelaide have traded in Tyson Stengle, another young player traded after two years on a list and a scant handful of games.

Stengle is another fringe small forward bet for Adelaide, and will probably compete with Shane McAdam for that role, both essentially coming in as state league players. Stengle led the Richmond reserves with 33 goals this year, and was named in the best players list five times from 19 games.

Unlike Setterfield and Scrimshaw, Stengle was a rookie draftee, so Richmond didn’t pay any real draft material to pick him up. Like them, Stengle is unknown enough to be either a shrewd pickup or an anonymous soon-to-be-former AFL player. As with Setterfield and Scrimshaw, we’ve imputed a future value to flesh out a very limited AFL track record, and his projection looks fairly similar to those players’ as a result.

Rather than trade their pick 73 directly to Richmond, Adelaide swapped a future fourth round pick for pick 68 to give to Richmond. This suggests the gap between those two picks was actually a sticking point on Richmond’s willingness to trade Tyson Stengle to the Crows.

First, the pick swap:
That Adelaide future pick would be 61 if the 2018 ladder were replicated, and becomes pick 68 if Adelaide finish 5th in 2019. Gold Coast probably get the better of this swap in theory, and add a fourth round pick after dealing their own for with Scrimshaw, but it’s all pretty notional given fourth round picks don’t always get used as live selections.

Stengle projects somewhere around 37 PAV, which is also similar to the average track record of mature age draftee. The projection suggests Adelaide may have underpaid for Stengle, and while he’s produced almost nothing at AFL level so far, it won’t take much for a very young player like him to match the expected value of pick 68.

Verdict: Notionally unfair trade, but Richmond won’t feel they’ve lost anything.

Note: This post is part of a series of posts using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Elsewhere, you can read much more about the method and theory behind PAV and also about PAPLEY, the projection method used to derive expected future PAVs. This method expresses both picks and players in terms of expected future value allowing them to be compared on this common basis.

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