After two years of speculation, small forward Orazio Fantasia has headed back to Adelaide, and more specifically Port Adelaide, to try to get a fresh start on his career.
Fantasia has long shown glimpses of being amongst the best at his role in the league, but has been unable to crest that peak as yet. He has constantly battled injury issues – playing 20 games only once in his career.
When he’s gotten onto the park he’s been an exciting player, capable of kicking two goals a game.
Unfortunately, those glimpses have come all too rarely thanks to a body that just won’t stay healthy. He turns 26 next year and while he’s not running out of time, the horizon is starting to loom. Can he slot into the fleet of players who operate at Charlie Dixon’s feet or will he fade away?
As such he’s the classic difficult valuation as we ponder record vs potential. Here’s his Salary Predictionn Tool outlook next to the higher rated, but equally frustrating, Joe Daniher:
In both cases, the wide gulf between what’s likely based on history, and what’s hoped for by optimistic list managers, creates a trade valuation dilemma.
As it happens, the trade has landed higher than his record would have it, placing his implied value somewhere around Pick 24.
Essendon dug in hoping for a premium on an uncontracted wantaway with a poor injury history, and they’ve basically secured it here.
Verdict: Unfair trade due to Fantasia’s risk factor
Note: This post is part of a series of posts using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Readers can explore these values with tools such as 5-year player value projection charts and a Salary Prediction tool as well as the HPN Trade Calculator to evaluate potential trades.
Elsewhere, read much more about the method and theory behind PAV. Expressing the value of players and picks in terms of expected future PAV provides a common currency for comparing them in trades and other movements. Players are projected using PAPLEY, a method to derive expected future PAVs.