There’s always a couple of surprising names thrown up in the trade window who sometimes attract the attention of a couple of clubs. Often these names never rise above whispers, drowned out by the shouting about stars.
After the big moves and drama of the final hours of the trade period, the move of Nick Hind to Essendon likely slipped under the radar of most.
Hind was recruited from the Essendon VFL team to St Kilda as a mature smaller defender. In the past two years, Hind has largely played most of his footy as a small forward, but his attributes probably suit either role. With vacancies for pacy smaller players with good defensive instincts at both parts of the ground, Hind shapes as a low cost replacement option for the Bombers.
On paper, Hind was likely the player to drop out of consideration for St Kilda’s best 22 with the arrival of Jack Higgins. It’s never as neat as it is on paper, but it seems equally likely that Hind will find more opportunities at senior footy at the Dons.
Traditional counting stats don’t necessarily favour Hind as a small forward – he averages less than a goal and 10 disposals per game. His defensive work though has been solid.
There’s a decent chance that he outstrips his projection above, as he has struggled to consistently get games at a Saints line-up deep at that particular role. If Hind can earn games, Essendon may have gotten a good deal here.
The trade rates Hind as worth a token late selection, which is probably about right given that’s what St Kilda spent on him in 2018.
Verdict: Fair trade.
Note: This post is part of a series of posts using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Readers can explore these values with tools such as 5-year player value projection charts and a Salary Prediction tool as well as the HPN Trade Calculator to evaluate potential trades.
Elsewhere, read much more about the method and theory behind PAV. Expressing the value of players and picks in terms of expected future PAV provides a common currency for comparing them in trades and other movements. Players are projected using PAPLEY, a method to derive expected future PAVs.