Adelaide value in – Seedsman (1102 points). Value out – pick No.32 (860 points). Total = +242 points.
Collingwood value in – Howe (1494 points) and pick No.68 (400 points). Value out – Seedsman (1102 points) and Kennedy (844 points). Total = -52 points.
Melbourne value in – Kennedy (844 points) and picks No.29 (880 points) and 50 (670 points). Value out – Howe (1494 points) and Toumpas (912 points). Total = -12 points.
Port Adelaide value in – Toumpas (912 points) and pick No.32 (860 points). Value out – No.29 (880 points), 50 (670 points) and 68 (400 points). Total = -178 points.
Verdict: A surprisingly fair trade all round.
This trade is what the AFL Trade Period is really about. A bunch of moving parts, almost all of which are valuable, and a number of clubs and fans working out what it all means.
All the players here are projected to be decent players going forward. If anything, Howe might be benefiting from the Melksham Problem, where young players who play regularly are potentially overvalued by the HPN system.
In fact, you could say that the potential of all four players traded outweighs their output to date at AFL level, and their new clubs will hope to get more out of them then their old clubs could. In fact, Jeremy Howe has played only one less game than the other three players combined. But all of the the players involved are relatively young, and all have shown promise at one time or another. This certainly isn’t shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic territory here.
The picks involved range from valuable second rounders to the risky pick 68. The draft is an inexact science, and there’s a fair chance that one of these picks will work out to the type of level that the other teams will regret letting it go.
Ultimately, HPN must re-iterate that trades involving so many young and unproven parts are relatively hard to evaluate. In 10 years time, any one of the four teams involved could end up being the winner here. For now, though, it looks as though everything is balanced pretty well and the clubs have all spread the risk pretty evenly.