Gold Coast value in = 3880 points – Pick 6 (1500 points), 2016 1st round pick (~Pick 6, 1500 points), pick 29 (880 points).
Melbourne value in = 3980 points – Pick 3 (2000 points), Pick 10 (1230 points) and Pick 43 (750 points).
Verdict – Fair trade (Melboune gains 100 points of pick and player value, or 1.025 points back for every point given up).
As the noted philosopher and game theorist Kenny Rogers once surmised “You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away and know when to run.” Melbourne, in making this trade, is holding ‘em. This is the single biggest bare-faced gamble on a team’s future seen in this trade period, and Melbourne (perhaps for once) is betting on themselves. This trade will pay off for Melbourne if they do as well or better than they did this year, but they will lose the trade if they slide back down the ladder.
Specifically, Melbourne will break even on this trade if they finish 14th next year, they’ll win if they finish 13th or higher, and they’ll lose if they finish 15th or lower. It will only become troublesome for either side if Melbourne finishes inside the top 6 or in the bottom 3. For Gold Coast, that’s a reasonable bet to make, considering Melbourne’s long streak of missing the finals.
The AFL points system sees the picks being worth a slightly different value, but not being actually represented by the likely outputs of players chosen in those draft positions, as will be outlined in a future post. For the AFL system, Melbourne will win the trade if they finish 11th or higher, and lose at 12th or lower.
For Gold Coast, there is also the benefit of adding a pick for next year’s Academy crop, most notably Brad Scheer who projects to be a high pick. There really are no big winners or losers in this trade, but at least Melbourne have at last gambled on their own future.