In 2017 we are introducing a very experimental player value method named PAPLEY – PAv Player Linear Extrapolated Yield. The name lies to you – it is not “linear”, and player is repeated twice.
It doesn’t mean that it doesn’t work.
We have internally tested PAPLEY for a relatively short period of time so at this stage are unwilling to release the formulas publicly. PAPLEY predicts a players’ future yield (in this case PAVs) based on their past performance and age – similar to our old methods of player prediction.
PAPLEY will be presented in two forms – with a retirement weight and without. For trade evaluations, when HPN refers to PAPLEY it will be the full version – with retirement weight – unless specified to cover a shorter period.
We will be presenting PAPLEY in different ways during trade period – the first of which is here in the HPN Trade Calculator. Keep an eye out for some of the others.
PAPLEY should be able to predict, with some confidence, the remaining output in the rest of a player’s career. PAPLEY gets more accurate the older a player is, with the confidence intervals reducing as players age. Certain players may be significantly over or under-predicted based on limited data – one current example of this is Sam Powell-Pepper, who is (currently) rated as the most valuable player in the AFL in terms of expected future output. Generally, PAPLEY is not totally reliable unless a player has played more than one season at AFL level, however we have entered all the data in the Trade Calculator.
For certain players who missed 2016 entirely, such as the Essendon 34 and Jarryd Roughead, some small modifications have been made. We may have missed some such players. PAPLEY does not include players that have not played AFL football before.
Over the next 12 months we intend to completely overhaul PAPLEY and improve the methodology. Until then – this should be a fairly good start (and better than the old HPN method).