After three years and at least as many requests, we have finally come up with a tipping model. Perhaps the longest part of the process was coming up with a name, like all good statistical models. We’d like to introduce our new friend PERT (Player Estimated Result Tipping), named in
Continue reading »Despite their lowly 5th position on a very tight ladder heading into round 7, the Lions finished the season in second place on both the ladder and in the HPN Team Ratings. The Lions ended up rated second best for their defence and midfield and a weaker 5th for their
Continue reading »Let’s take a walk through the last two rounds and what each team needs to be worried about. Broadly speaking there are three main paths for the last two weeks to follow: The Bulldogs aiming to win one game and lock up a grand final spot. The Crows and Brisbane
Continue reading »As with last week, these power rankings are influenced by, but not determined, by our team strength ratings. 1. Melbourne (no change) Melbourne seems to be following down a similar path to their 2017 season, when they constantly beat the best opposition (bar Brisbane), but struggled against poor opposition in
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After round 2 of the AFLW season – nearly a third of the way through the competition – HPN thought that it was fair time for reflection on the strengths and prospects of each side. These rankings are guided, but not entirely determined, by the HPN Team Ratings, which early
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After a relatively short gestation period, some limited trials at VFL and AFL level and aborted start at the end of last year, AFLX is finally at our feet. Whether the footballing public wants it or not. Ryan Buckland at The Roar had a good take on the competition, in
Continue reading »Given the condensed nature of the competition, and the small pool of finalists (just two, for those playing at home), even round one can have nearly catastrophic consequences if a side has an off week, or loses a close game. The standard of the four games, and the eight teams
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HPN fully intended to do a long series of AFLW previews, including of each team outlining strengths and weaknessses. But, due to a project that we have been working on for the last year or so hitting deadline, we couldn’t find the time. Instead, we’re going to lay out the
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This is HPN’s fourth annual attempt at the Consensus Phantom Draft, combining the wisdom of multiple draft watchers and also Reddit, to find out what the consensus view is. In most years the method is within the two or three most accurate phantom drafts overall, and the final draft-day version is
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Richmond and Geelong Richmond traded their 2018 third round pick to get Geelong’s current one. Pick 53 gives the Tigers a third pick in the 50’s to go with 15 and 17. They’d probably like to have their father/son prospect Patrick Naish slip past 17 and be matched using a
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