Note: This article is part of a series using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Elsewhere, you can read much more about the method and theory behind PAV. You can also read about PAPLEY, the projection method used to derive expected future PAVs, which
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Despite their terrible defensive numbers in recent years, Melbourne found themselves entering the 2019 offseason with a logjam down back – especially with respect to taller defenders. With Lever and May penciled into two spots, and Hore, Hibberd, Oscar McDonald all fighting for one or two others, Sam Frost was
Continue reading »Note: This article is part of a series using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Elsewhere, you can read much more about the method and theory behind PAV. You can also read about PAPLEY, the projection method used to derive expected future PAVs, which
Continue reading »
Few players have risen as fast in the footballing public’s consciousness as former Geelong star Tim Kelly – going from apprentice sparky/WAFL standout to one of the best handful of players period in three short years. The story of Tim Kelly isn’t typical of the era of the One National
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Before we get started, HPN recommends that every reader looks over this piece by Jake Niall from 2018 regarding the AFL’s free agency compensation formula. Given the details present in this piece (and others), HPN has concluded that the AFL formula is more or less copied from the NFL free
Continue reading »With the 2019 AFL season rapidly falling from sight, the attention of the league’s media and fans turns to who will be at each club in 2020 and beyond. The career HPN Trade Calculator has now been updated for 2019 values, so go and have a look! Also, we’ve introduced a
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For every AFL Grand Final, an off-field narrative emerges. The fairytale of the Bulldogs in 2016 still captures hearts and minds as one of the most poignant, but 2019 sees a captivating story at the other end of the scale. One of a big, big sound – and its emergence
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As part of the buildup to the Grand Final, HPN thought we’d take a look at how the two list builds have occurred by looking at the value of the player acquisition opportunities. Each trade period, HPN uses its Player Approximate Value (PAV) system to evaluate the trade period and
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HPN Team Ratings The Pies rate as an extremely well balanced team, with no obvious gaps in their ratings. Historically, 105% of the league average across the board is the threshold for premiers under the HPN Team Ratings system back to 1999 (give or take the 2005 Swans and 2016
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HPN Team Ratings Geelong still sit at the top of the heap according to the HPN Team Ratings, but their spot is about someone necessarily being number 1 due to the way ordinal numbers work rather than representing dominance over the competition. As mentioned in previous weeks, it’s the efficiency
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