It’s a bit of a cliché to rely on this early in the footballing year, but we’ve started to run out of superlatives to describe the dominance of the Crows’ all-conquering forward line. Last week, against a formidable Giants side, the Crows struggled for a quarter or so before flicking
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What does winning in round 1 mean?
HPN has previously established that the predictive powers of the preseason are minimal at best, but after yet another crazy week of football to open up the season but we thought it’d be useful to look at how telling the first round of results would be in determining the make-up
Continue reading »These Are The Last Days – an article about an article about a podcast
There was a ripple in the online footy world when a hot take appeared on the Herald Sun website about Erin Phillips and her ability to play in the AFL men’s competition. Whilst that may have captured most of the attention, we reckon it’s a fairly mundane point. Unlike other athletes
Continue reading »HPN’s AFLW Grand Final Preview
The first AFLW Grand Final participants have been decided, after a weekend of relatively wacky results. As we outlined last week, Melbourne needed a record-setting win to maximise their chances of making the big game. Whilst the Dees managed the record-breaking 70 points, and a big 54-point win, it wasn’t quite enough to
Continue reading »HPN’s Statistical 2017 AFL Ladder Prediction
This is HPN’s third year of providing predictions on the ladder for the upcoming AFL season. Some things have changed with our methods, but most haven’t. As we explained last year: “Like last season’s prediction, this projection shouldn’t be used as exact gospel on how a team should perform in
Continue reading »AFLW Round 7 Preview and Power Rankings
To start off this week’s column, HPN thought we’d get to the nitty-gritty and step through the scenarios each team has before them to make the grand final: Effectively, it’s all in Adelaide’s hands unless Melbourne do something unprecedented to Fremantle. With that behind us, let’s get to the week’s
Continue reading »AFLW Recap and Round 6 Power Rankings
Regardless of ability, gender, geographical location or audience, the country might have witnessed one of the most compelling weekends of football all year, if not for the past few. All four AFLW games last weekend were decided by a score or less, and most were in the balance up until
Continue reading »AFLW Recap and Round 5 Power Rankings
After an eventful round four, the finals picture of the inaugural AFLW season is beginning to shape up. Round four saw a rematch of each pre-season match, albeit with vastly different results. Of the four preseason winners, only one walked away with the points on the weekend (Brisbane, in their
Continue reading »Statistical Prediction of the 2017 Super Rugby season
Last year we looked at the fixture unnevenness and indulged in a simple win-loss and luck based projection of the 2016 Super Rugby season. This year we’re going to try to apply a Pythagorean approach to strength rating and apply the method to project 2017. The projection involves three steps: Pythagorean strength accounts
Continue reading »AFLW Round 3 Wrap and Power Rankings
Three weeks into the AFLW and our pre-season favourites Collingwood, a team highly fancied by many, sits last on the ladder wondering what has gone wrong. Before we dig into that, here’s a chart of the depth of each team that played on the weekend and who was among their
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