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Today we’re going show a simple “survival function” analysis, inspired by a query from Soccermetrics on Twitter who ran a similar analysis of MLS draft pick career tenures. Survival analysis shows us longevity or survival rate for players, and should prove a useful addition to other work we’ve done around draft

Following on from yesterday’s discussion of Olympic “unbeatables”, here we will take another angle on Olympic favouritism by looking at the shortest price favourites at Rio. Some events just won’t be competitive. In the table below, we have listed every event Sportsbet has a market for where the favourite is

HPN will be sporadically covering the upcoming Rio Olympics from the comfort of our loungerooms. If you’re here for the AFL, please feel free to ignore. For most casual sport fans, fame often equates with ability, and the inevitability of any result. Usain Bolt is probably the most common answer

As we move within a month of wrapping up the Home and Away season, the HPN ratings continue to shuffle around slightly. Six teams make moves this week, all up one or down place. At the top end of the ladder, GWS sneak above Adelaide into third, with very little

Hawthorn, who started the season slugglishly and who we’ve mostly rated adrift from or within the top pack but not above it, have pushed up another spot in our rankings this week thanks to their demolition of Richmond. Notably, they’ve pushed their defence rating (efficiency of opponent inside-50s) above the

Jackson wrote in the Guardian today that Brisbane have 99 problems but Tom Rockliff ain’t one and by our count it doesn’t look like that headline is particularly hyperbolic. We’ve gone through and attempted to enumerate what might constitute the Lions’ 99 problems: Defenders nearly all children A new draftee is

We open this week’s rating post with perhaps the most significant change to the HPN ratings in the last month, and one we have slowly been tracking. North Melbourne, after opening the season on a 9-match undefeated streak, have sunk down to 9th in the ratings and face a not-significant

Given the AFL’s insistence on scheduling Thursday night games, Round 17 has already begun with Hawthorn pipping Sydney in yet another close win (and a fourth last-moments defeat for the Swans). A bit of a narrative has emerged from that game regarding Hawthorn as a “clutch” team and we want

Sorry for the clickbait headline, but through 16 rounds this statement is more fact than mere hot take. According to the HPN ratings system, applied historically back to 1998, this top four is the tightest since at least 2003. Our ratings are expressed as in-season relativities, telling us how far