The Suns’ list of injured players might be better than the players they have available Gold Coast are once again in a severe injury crisis and we think the hot take machine (for example this effort by Mick Malthouse) needs to take a bit of a look at just how
Continue reading »What chance does an AFL bottom 4 side have of rising up the ladder?
The entire theory of a closed-entry league like the AFL, with salary caps, with a draft, is that success should be roughly cyclical. The clubs down the bottom of the ladder have the tools available to improve faster than clubs near the top. The hope bottom clubs can realistically sell
Continue reading »Post round 8 team ratings – losing well
One of the interesting features of the inside-50 and scoring efficiency based ratings system we’ve been running this season is the way ongoing changes in each team’s opponent strength adjusts their rating. This week we’ve had two sides who lost to more highly fancied opponents rise up in their overall
Continue reading »The Revenge of Levi Casboult, and other round 7 #AFL preview tidbits
Some teams don’t love the contested ball (but that’s not always a bad thing) At HPN, we have a pretty “glass half full” view of statistics. We think they’re pretty cool, and can often tell you a lot of things you didn’t know, or help to explain things you already
Continue reading »How do the strongest teams of 2016 compare to past great sides after 7 rounds?
This year we’ve been trialling a fairly simple method of rating team strength based on statistics derived from inside 50s, which correlate strongly with winning teams. The premier usually sits near the top of the pile in these measures, as we’ll see later in this post. The ratings are three simple statistical
Continue reading »HPN’s Round 7 Preview, featuring a lot of GWS talk #AFL
Port Adelaide are keen to cause bounces, but awful at winning them Usually a team with a dominant ruckman is somewhat keen to get them involved. With a dominant ruckman, a team can get first use of the ball and go back on the attack. So it stands to reason
Continue reading »Post Round 6 opponent-adjusted team ratings #AFL
Last week we introduced a fairly simple method of rating team strength based on statistics derived from inside 50s, which correlate strongly with winning teams (the premier usually sits near the top of the pile in these measures). The ratings are three simple statistical ratios: Midfield Score (inside 50 ratio) Offence
Continue reading »Parramatta should still make finals if they keep up current form
News has broken today that the Parramatta Eels have been docked all their competition points for the 2016 season so far as well as being fined and having officials fired, as a result of salary cap cheating. The reset of their standing to zero premiership points leaves them with 15
Continue reading »Let’s rate team strength (and do a round 6 preview)
For the past few months HPN has been looking at how to evaluate efficiency and movement. In the last few of our weekly review/previews we have been dropping little nuggets here and there – scoring shots per inside 50, goals conceded per opposition inside 50 – to try to look
Continue reading »Is Brisbane that bad? Are Freo? (an AFL round 5 preview)
This is the fourth weekly wrap up/preview for the 2016 AFL by HPN. Brisbane might not really be that bad (offensively) Only 16 teams since 2000 have gone through a season with a goal kicking accuracy of less than 50%, with the lowest being the inaugural Gold Coast squad in
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