Re-Introducing the HPN Team Ratings for 2018, plus PERT tips and PAV!

There’s a lot to get through here, so we’re going to get right to it with a roundup of the current state of what we’re running this year.

The HPN Team Ratings

In 2015, HPN was sitting at HPN HQ (which was an actual physical location at that time) and tried to work out the easiest way to evaluate all clubs’ performances. We started out quite complex, then simplified and removed elements as we went. We ended with just four:

  • inside-50s,
  • inside-50s conceded,
  • scoring shots for,
  • scoring shots conceded.

After watching a lot of football, and looking at a lot of data, we felt that this accurately described the basic battle of football – the game is described by who gets more opportunity to score, and who scores more efficiently when given the opportunity to do so. What we didn’t realise at the time (at least consciously) is that we were re-inventing the wheel, with measures like John Hollinger’s NBA Offensive and Defensive Efficiency  (to mention just one example) already providing similar insights into other sports.

The wrinkle that Australian football provides compared to turn-taking sports (such as basketball, the rugbys and American Football) is that not all possessions are scoring opportunities. Turnovers and stoppage skirmishes in between the arcs may occur any number of times before a true scoring opportunity (an inside-50) is created. The best forward line still can’t score without the ball getting to them. Offensive and defensive ratings alone therefore don’t show the full picture.

To account for this, we incorporated a measure of ability of sides to create and prevent these scoring opportunities. This is measured simply by the balance of inside-50s obtained and conceded. This the midfield rating – the battle of and for dominance in the middle of the ground.

There’s nothing remarkable about what we have done – coaches and broadcasters have long mentioned the value of these three elements in isolation, all we have done is to pull them coherently together and look at them historically. Given that Tony “MOS” Corke has written that inside-50s are one of the stats which correlate most strongly with wins, we were compelled to focus our ratings on them.

These simple ratings seem to work in historically identifying good and bad football teams:

  • All premiers since 1998 have had an overall Team Rating of at least 105%, with the 2016 Bulldogs and 2005 Swans being fairly major outliers in rating even that low.
  • All but four premiers were above 100% of league average in strength in all three measures, ie offensive, defensive and midfield rating. North Melbourne in 1999, Sydney in 2005, the Bulldogs in 2016 and Richmond last year were all only below-average in one measure.
  • The premier is nearly always in the top four of the overall Team Ratings for the year, and usually inside the top two.

The formulas are simple:

  • Offensive Rating: (Team Points/Team Inside-50s) / League Average
  • Midfield Rating: (Team Inside-50s/Opposition Inside-50s)
  • Defensive Rating: This is a little more complex just to achieve a neat inverse of offensive rating.
    • Defence Number (DN) = (Team Points Conceded/Team Inside-50s Conceded)/ League Average
    • Team Defence = (100*((2*DN-DN^2)/(2*DN)))*2

During the season we adjust these for opponent strength to date. A strength of schedule (SOS) adjustment seems to do a pretty good job, from about round 5-7 onwards, of decoding how a good a team is across the ground given how good the teams they have played are. For example, when North Melbourne were 9-0 off a weak opening schedule in 2016, these Team Ratings ratings pegged them as the 8th best team, which is where they finished the year on the ladder. These are simple line adjustments:

  • Adjusted Offensive Rating = Offensive Rating * Average of opponent Defensive Rating to date
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating = Defensive Rating * Average of opponent Offensive Rating to date
  • Adjusted Midfield Rating = Midfield Rating * Average of opponent Midfield Rating to date

Less words, more charts!

OK! Here we go:

r4 team ratings.PNG

Here on the left are the raw (non-opponent adjusted) HPN Team Ratings after four rounds of footy. However, four rounds is enough to start considering the strength of each team’s opponents, so the overall ratings factor in opponent ratings.

When putting both together, you get this overall picture of who the HPN Team Ratings sees each club so far this year.

North Melbourne surprisingly tops the list for unadjusted sides, partially a function of beating up on Carlton last week and St Kilda the week before. The Roos have faced, by some distance, the weakest draw to date, with games against the Saints, Carlton and the Suns all contributing to a pretty inflated defensive rating. Even their placement of 7th after opposition strength is taken into account is probably still a bit dubious, with a further slide expected (check out their next five opponents).

Port, Richmond, West Coast and GWS have also somewhat benefited from soft-ish draws so far, with maybe a slight falling to the pack to be expected from these top-ish sides.

In terms of areas of the ground, we see some surprises. The Swans sit at the top of the tree for offensive efficiency, not something they’ve done in the modern past. Their midfield is currently permitting lopsided inside-50 counts, leaving them to rely on strong inside-50 defence and comparatively rare scoring opportunities to win their games. Melbourne rate as having had the best midfield so far, but are being let down in defence while the anomalous North, followed by the possibly more sustainable GWS, sit at the top of the defensive tree.

A familiar face returns to the overall top of the HPN Team Ratings, with Hawthorn considered the best side in the competition after a month. We don’t quite expect that this hot start will last, but the Hawks seem considerably stronger than their 2017 counterparts and currently rate well across the ground. Not far behind, and in the “premiership zone” for the Team Ratings, are two sides expected to be near the top of the competition come finals time (GWS and Sydney), and also West Coast.

At the bottom end of the competition are two winless likely cellar-dwellers in the Lions and Carlton, and one slightly surprising addition in a seemingly sliding St Kilda. The Saints have been poor at scoring and at creating chances to score so far this year, rating as the worst in the league in both areas. That’s a little unexpected for a pre-season potential finals contender.

It’s also worth noting that the “middle tier” of the league is ELEVEN teams long a month into the season, with teams from Collingwood down to the Bulldogs fairly bunched together. This is both crazy compared to recent years, and potentially showing that the long term goal of league-wide parity might just be unfolding. We’ll be following this one closely this year.

PERT Tips

PERT is an experimental tipping model which we introduced earlier this year. We will be updating tips through the weekend on this page.

Due to the drawn out nature of the round, and PERT’s player focus, we can only do tips for the first five games of the round so far. We’re tweeting updates and keeping them posted to this page under ‘Team Statistics’ in the header, as the round progresses.

pert.PNG

You can also find this being tracked against various other tipping models at Max Barry’s Squiggle website.

Player Approximate Value and mPAV after Round 4

Our season-rating Player Approximate Value (PAV) and its per-game marginal cousin (mPAV) both look at the performance of players using a formula outlined in this piece. PAV is conceptually related to the HPN Team Ratings because the total value allocated to players is scaled according team rating. A good offence gives that team’s players more offensive PAV, and so forth.

The full set of data is here and past years can be found via the drop down menus at the top of this page, but here’s who PAV thinks are the best players in the league after four rounds:

PlayerTeamGamesOff PAVDef PAVMid PAVTotal PAVOff mPAVDef mPAVMid mPAVTotal mPAV
Franklin, LanceSY425.131.095.1231.334.53-0.760.131.30
Gibbs, BryceAD411.783.6314.1529.561.59-0.202.111.17
Mitchell, TomHW48.082.2219.1929.490.78-0.513.221.16
Martin, DustinRI416.940.6711.6529.262.73-0.851.561.15
Sinclair, CallumSY412.144.699.4526.281.670.031.080.93
Grundy, BrodieCW49.653.0313.1725.851.12-0.331.900.90
Lyons, JarrydGC48.443.6113.425.450.86-0.211.950.87
Shuey, LukeWC45.774.9714.5925.340.270.092.210.86
Fyfe, NatFR46.234.8813.6224.730.370.072.000.81
Riewoldt, JackRI414.822.986.5224.332.26-0.340.430.78
Coniglio, StephenGW48.854.1210.723.670.95-0.091.350.74
Martin, StefanBL410.712.929.7623.391.36-0.361.150.71
Parker, LukeSY48.884.579.8723.310.950.001.170.71
Macrae, JackWB46.163.3613.2322.750.35-0.261.910.67
Higgins, ShaunNM47.073.1212.4622.650.56-0.311.740.66
Gawn, MaxME49.23.0610.2622.531.02-0.331.260.65
Bontempelli, MarcusWB48.973.29.9922.160.97-0.301.200.63
Cameron, JeremyGW416.271.424.3422.032.58-0.69-0.050.62
Menzel, DanielGE419.340.671.8921.93.26-0.85-0.580.61
Sidebottom, SteeleCW45.644.0512.221.890.24-0.111.680.61
Naitanui, NicWC48.223.3310.321.840.81-0.271.270.60
Brown, BenNM416.682.652.4921.812.67-0.42-0.450.60
Ziebell, JackNM49.615.586.5921.781.110.230.450.60
Oliver, ClaytonME45.312.3214.0121.650.17-0.492.080.59
Walters, MichaelFR49.122.579.8121.51.01-0.441.160.58
Cotchin, TrentRI45.052.6913.6121.350.11-0.411.990.57
Seedsman, PaulAD48.085.058.1321.260.780.110.790.56
Cripps, PatrickCA46.192.7912.2421.220.36-0.391.690.56
Kelly, TimGE49.363.598.1721.121.06-0.210.800.55
Ward, CallanGW44.294.1812.5120.99-0.06-0.081.750.54
Polec, JaredPA45.87.97.2620.960.280.740.600.54
Shiel, DylanGW47.033.4710.2420.740.55-0.241.250.52
Parfitt, BrandanGE411.512.686.2820.471.53-0.410.380.50
Wines, OlliePA43.664.2312.4720.36-0.19-0.071.740.49
Smith, IsaacHW48.914.526.820.230.96-0.010.500.48
Gaff, AndrewWC45.95.888.4420.220.300.290.860.48
Witts, JarrodGC46.664.279.2720.210.46-0.061.040.48
Breust, LukeHW413.022.774.2920.081.86-0.39-0.060.47
Westhoff, JustinPA45.398.386.2920.070.190.840.380.47
Smith, DevonES46.734.918.2619.90.480.080.820.46
Steven, JackSK45.813.7910.1919.790.28-0.171.240.45
Bellchambers, TomES49.132.348.2419.711.01-0.480.810.45
Gunston, JackHW410.824.354.4819.651.38-0.04-0.010.44
Lynch, TomGC414.772.162.6619.592.25-0.52-0.420.44
Cunnington, BenNM45.345.049.1819.560.170.111.020.43
Goldstein, ToddNM47.574.577.319.440.670.000.610.43
OMeara, JaegerHW44.84.99.6919.390.050.081.130.42
Laird, RoryAD42.2512.084.9819.31-0.501.660.090.42
Taranto, TimGW44.563.1811.4419.170.00-0.301.520.41
Heeney, IsaacSY49.463.276.2318.961.08-0.280.370.39
Selwood, JoelGE44.34.3610.2618.92-0.05-0.041.260.39
Nankervis, TobyRI44.135.239.518.86-0.090.151.090.38
Pendlebury, ScottCW44.264.481018.75-0.06-0.011.200.37
Roughead, JarrydHW412.982.043.618.621.86-0.55-0.210.37
Rance, AlexRI40.4117.60.5618.57-0.912.87-0.880.36
Shaw, HeathGW40.7815.142.6318.55-0.832.33-0.420.36
Curnow, EdCA43.53.4911.0618.05-0.23-0.231.430.32
Hunter, LachieWB46.633.537.8618.020.46-0.220.730.32
Darling, JackWC413.491.972.54181.97-0.57-0.440.32
Petracca, ChristianME45.223.249.4617.930.15-0.291.080.31
Dangerfield, PatrickGE37.521.668.7217.91.21-0.511.560.75
Treloar, AdamCW46.162.569.1517.870.35-0.441.010.31
Castagna, JasonRI411.342.384.0717.791.49-0.48-0.110.30
Lambert, KaneRI45.334.877.5917.780.170.070.670.30
Yeo, ElliotWC43.396.857.4817.72-0.250.510.650.30
Howe, JeremyCW42.4413.222.0417.7-0.461.91-0.550.30
Sheed, DomWC44.641.4811.5617.690.02-0.671.540.30
Neale, LachieFR44.362.1311.1817.67-0.04-0.531.460.30
Davis, PhilGW40.7815.261.6217.66-0.832.36-0.640.30
Thomas, JoshCW49.881.376.3117.561.17-0.700.390.29
Tuohy, ZachGE44.459.413.6917.55-0.021.07-0.190.29
Dixon, CharliePA47.841.897.8117.540.73-0.580.720.29
Hurley, MichaelES41.5813.981.9417.49-0.652.08-0.570.28
Menegola, SamGE47.223.426.7917.430.59-0.250.490.28
Hogan, JesseME411.080.755.617.431.44-0.830.230.28
Stewart, JamesES413.321.053.0517.421.93-0.77-0.330.28
Lycett, ScottWC46.683.077.6417.40.47-0.330.680.28
Zorko, DayneBL46.613.337.3917.330.45-0.270.630.27
Caddy, JoshRI39.430.777.0717.261.77-0.771.070.69
McLean, TobyWB45.453.128.6217.190.20-0.310.900.26
Casboult, LeviCA48.622.755.6617.030.90-0.390.250.25
Kennedy, JoshSY44.52.829.6917-0.01-0.381.130.25
Sandilands, AaronFR46.731.58.7516.980.48-0.670.930.25
Macmillan, JamieNM4212.252.6816.93-0.561.69-0.410.24
Stewart, TomGE40.9214.641.2916.85-0.802.22-0.720.24
Patton, JonathonGW47.131.977.7316.830.57-0.570.700.23
Thompson, ScottNM40.9313.9216.83-0.792.06-0.560.23
Waite, JarradNM410.471.085.2416.791.30-0.760.150.23
Hoskin-Elliott, WillCW48.725.013.0516.780.920.10-0.330.23
Jacobs, SamAD47.121.518.0316.650.57-0.670.770.22
Wilson, NathanFR42.749.814.0616.61-0.401.16-0.110.22
Acres, BlakeSK46.134.635.7216.480.350.020.260.21
Sloane, RoryAD44.55.146.6916.33-0.010.130.470.20
LeCras, MarkWC410.671.094.516.261.35-0.76-0.010.19
Atkins, RoryAD45.036.424.816.250.110.410.060.19
Mundy, DavidFR45.733.047.4516.230.26-0.330.640.19
Crisp, JackCW42.828.774.6216.21-0.380.930.020.19
McEvoy, BenHW46.24.335.6616.190.36-0.050.250.19
Howard, DougalPA41.1713.241.7416.15-0.741.91-0.620.18
Cripps, JamieWC48.911.885.2916.080.96-0.590.160.18
Zaharakis, DavidES44.154.827.1116.08-0.090.060.560.18
Wingard, ChadPA49.811.244.9816.031.16-0.730.100.18
Curnow, CharlieCA410.941.683.4116.031.41-0.63-0.250.18
Heppell, DysonES43.724.587.7216.02-0.180.010.700.17
Gray, RobbiePA34.843.028.1215.970.42-0.121.380.56
McDonald, LukeNM43.078.74.1915.96-0.320.91-0.080.17
Cameron, CharlieBL411.790.493.6515.931.59-0.89-0.200.17
Simpson, KadeCA41.899.544.4315.86-0.591.10-0.030.16
Miller, ToukGC42.375.457.9115.73-0.480.200.740.15
Boak, TravisPA48.841.035.8115.680.95-0.770.280.15
Aish, JamesCW47.313.594.7215.620.61-0.210.040.15
Daniher, JoeES410.530.794.2715.591.32-0.83-0.060.14
Hawkins, TomGE410.671.952.9215.541.35-0.57-0.360.14
Hurn, ShannonWC41.6310.952.8815.45-0.641.41-0.370.13
Stringer, JakeES47.591.815.9915.40.67-0.600.320.13
Tarrant, RobbieNM31.212.561.6315.4-0.652.68-0.520.51
Newnes, JackSK43.545.486.3315.35-0.220.200.390.13
Finlayson, JeremyGW40.6513.361.3515.35-0.861.94-0.700.13
Sheppard, BradWC42.0111.721.5615.29-0.561.58-0.660.12
Dumont, TrentNM42.945.786.5615.28-0.350.270.440.12
Goddard, BrendonES43.876.524.8715.26-0.150.430.070.12
Ross, SebastianSK43.543.997.6215.16-0.22-0.120.680.11
Conca, ReeceRI42.325.766.8914.97-0.490.270.520.10
Shiels, LiamHW43.72.518.6614.88-0.19-0.450.910.09
Parish, DarcyES45.441.997.4314.870.20-0.560.630.09
Gray, SamPA48.292.134.4414.860.82-0.53-0.020.09
Edwards, ShaneRI46.283.015.5414.830.38-0.340.220.09
Marshall, ToddPA411.330.992.4714.791.49-0.78-0.460.08
Jones, NathanME45.080.699.0314.790.12-0.850.990.08
Ryan, LukeFR41.1212.31.2414.66-0.751.71-0.730.08
Impey, JarmanHW45.481.757.3614.590.21-0.620.620.07
Dahlhaus, LukeWB43.672.498.4114.57-0.19-0.450.850.07
Kelly, JoshGW35.473.835.2114.50.600.120.530.42
Martin, JackGC47.122.165.1514.430.57-0.520.130.06
Henderson, RickyHW46.443.484.4914.420.42-0.23-0.010.06
Atley, ShaunNM46.43.064.9614.420.41-0.330.090.06
Harmes, JamesME42.83.627.9914.41-0.38-0.200.760.06
Anderson, JedNM44.943.216.2614.410.09-0.290.380.06
Merrett, ZachES43.014.66.814.4-0.340.010.500.06
Papley, TomSY47.63.383.3214.30.67-0.26-0.270.05
Jenkins, JoshAD410.231.62.4514.291.25-0.65-0.460.05
Williams, BaileyWB43.087.553.6514.28-0.320.66-0.200.05
McGovern, MitchAD47.942.114.1714.230.75-0.53-0.080.04
McGovern, JeremyWC41.2612.030.8814.17-0.721.65-0.810.04
Barrass, TomWC40.2513.440.3914.08-0.941.96-0.910.03
Motlop, StevenPA47.881.384.8114.060.73-0.700.060.03
Towers, DeanSY46.934.1614.060.52-0.34-0.090.03
Geary, JarrynSK42.418.053.5113.97-0.470.77-0.230.02
Salem, ChristianME43.461.19.3813.94-0.24-0.761.060.02
Matera, BrandonFR46.482.894.5613.940.43-0.360.000.02
Hartung, BillyNM45.073.175.713.940.12-0.300.250.02
Green, JoshES49.60.613.6913.91.11-0.87-0.190.02
Suckling, MattWB44.035.923.9213.87-0.110.30-0.140.02
Blicavs, MarkGE42.038.073.7613.86-0.550.77-0.170.02
English, TimWB44.063.356.3913.79-0.11-0.260.400.01
Howe, DanielHW43.154.196.3713.71-0.31-0.080.400.01
Fisher, ZacCA45.252.975.413.620.16-0.350.190.00
Jonas, TomPA40.6911.71.2313.61-0.851.57-0.730.00
Lloyd, JakeSY41.869.172.4413.48-0.591.02-0.46-0.01
McVeigh, JarradSY42.337.983.1413.44-0.490.75-0.31-0.01
Haynes, NickGW40.7810.891.7213.39-0.831.40-0.62-0.02
Sicily, JamesHW31.929.22.2113.33-0.441.70-0.350.30
Hartlett, HamishPA42.216.624.513.33-0.510.46-0.01-0.02
Billings, JackSK47.232.33.7613.30.59-0.49-0.17-0.02
Gresham, JadeSK46.810.925.5813.30.50-0.800.23-0.02
Fiorini, BraydenGC43.564.245.4713.27-0.22-0.070.20-0.03
Waterman, JakeWC47.411.624.2113.230.63-0.64-0.07-0.03
Astbury, DavidRI40.4111.541.2413.19-0.911.54-0.73-0.03
Garlett, JeffME49.120.343.713.161.01-0.92-0.19-0.03
Jack, KierenSY46.21.255.6813.140.36-0.720.25-0.04
Swallow, DavidGC43.563.36.1913.05-0.22-0.270.36-0.04
Doedee, TomAD41.1910.241.5913.03-0.741.25-0.65-0.04
Byrne-Jones, DarcyPA42.494.316.2113-0.45-0.050.37-0.05
Sexton, AlexGC47.911.473.612.980.74-0.68-0.21-0.05
Talia, DanielAD40.6610.721.5812.96-0.851.36-0.65-0.05
Taberner, MatthewFR46.941.844.1812.960.53-0.60-0.08-0.05
Kreuzer, MatthewCA34.951.326.6412.910.45-0.610.950.26
Ablett, GaryGE34.452.625.8312.910.31-0.230.710.26
Butler, DanRI47.650.614.6312.890.68-0.870.02-0.05
Ebert, BradPA42.633.286.9412.84-0.42-0.280.53-0.06
Hibberd, MichaelME41.048.163.5812.77-0.770.79-0.21-0.06
Bonner, RileyPA42.96.313.5412.75-0.360.39-0.22-0.06
Tomlinson, AdamGW45.53.124.0912.710.21-0.31-0.10-0.07
Neal-Bullen, AlexME45.191.815.6612.670.14-0.600.25-0.07
Simpkin, JyNM43.475.363.8112.64-0.240.18-0.16-0.07
Ellis-Yolmen, CamAD43.841.097.7112.64-0.16-0.760.70-0.07
Witherden, AlexBL41.298.432.912.62-0.720.85-0.36-0.07
Webster, JimmySK30.7110.481.4212.61-0.792.07-0.580.23
Mills, CallumSY41.559.391.5912.54-0.661.07-0.65-0.08
Grigg, ShaunRI43.073.875.5812.53-0.32-0.150.23-0.08
Murphy, MarcCA33.771.876.8812.520.11-0.451.020.22
Andrews, HarrisBL41.1510.540.7612.45-0.751.32-0.83-0.09
Clarke, RyanNM41.878.32.2812.44-0.590.83-0.50-0.09
Vince, BernieME42.655.054.7112.42-0.420.110.04-0.09
Thompson, RoryGC4-0.1312.010.5112.39-1.031.64-0.89-0.09
May, StevenGC4-0.3612.260.4812.38-1.081.70-0.89-0.09
Wright, MatthewCA49.560.971.8212.351.10-0.79-0.60-0.09
Vickers-Willis, EdNM40.5310.291.5112.33-0.881.26-0.67-0.10
de Boer, MattGW45.082.634.612.310.12-0.420.01-0.10
Brown, LukeAD41.728.821.6912.23-0.620.94-0.63-0.10
Day, SamGC44.754.712.7712.220.040.04-0.39-0.10
Houston, DanPA40.979.731.4612.15-0.791.14-0.68-0.11
Christensen, AllenBL46.042.773.3212.130.33-0.39-0.27-0.11
Deledio, BrettGW42.544.175.3712.08-0.44-0.080.18-0.11
Lever, JakeME40.3510.681.0412.07-0.921.35-0.77-0.12
Walker, TaylorAD390.952.0812.031.64-0.72-0.390.18
Jetta, LewisWC42.016.23.8212.02-0.560.36-0.16-0.12
Melksham, JakeME44.151.836.0212-0.09-0.600.32-0.12
Saad, AdamES41.298.612.0811.98-0.720.89-0.54-0.12
Hill, StephenFR33.494.663.7911.930.020.370.110.17
Masten, ChrisWC45.771.724.3911.890.27-0.62-0.03-0.13
Savage, ShaneSK41.567.252.9611.77-0.660.60-0.35-0.14
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Wright, NathanSK10.570.020.120.71-0.50-0.98-0.89-0.79
Scully, TomGW10.65-0.020.030.66-0.43-1.02-0.97-0.81
Polson, CameronCA20.27-0.060.40.61-0.88-1.03-0.82-0.91
Rich, DanielBL100.350.240.59-1.00-0.69-0.79-0.83
Taylor, HarryGE100.2600.26-1.00-0.77-1.00-0.92
Broomhead, TimCW10000-1.00-1.00-1.00-1.00

Callum Sinclair emerges as a surprisingly useful (if flattered by Sydney’s inflated offensive rating) player for the Swans this year while solo rucking. Brodie Grundy, Stefan Martin and Max Gawn also figure in as highly valuable solo rucks.

An average player-game is definitionally 0.00 on mPAV, and the actual average player rates below that mark, so these players are all contributing quite a lot more value each game than that. Lance Franklin, the driving force behind Sydney’s currently league-leading offensive rating, sits at the top for most valuable players, with midfield stars such as Gibbs, Mitchell and Martin just behind.

At this stage, there’s a notable lack of defensive players at the top end. This is not entirely unusual. Across the league as a whole there’s as much defensive PAV in the system there is forward and midfield PAV value, but the formula often distributes the available value more evenly, and most defenders often don’t accrue much value elsewhere. Even so, Alex Rance finished 14th in PAV terms last year, so currently he’s seemingly a little down on that form, or being relied on less heavily.

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