HPN will be covering this AFL Trade Period with daily posts, as a roundup or with progressive updates through the day. Watch for updates on social media.
Another quiet day as the likely complex player trades continue to brew. There was some reporting this evening suggesting a previously mooted trade involving Port Adelaide and Dan Houston had been knocked back by Port Adelaide, likely illustrating how not all trades always involve all parties at all times. Sometimes agents do some of the heavy lifting without clubs being involved; sometimes everyone at a club isn’t on the same page.
As the trade period winds down to the last couple of days there are quite a few trades still to come.
Melbourne grab another third round pick
Clearly linked to the subsequent headline swap with Essendon, the Crows and Melbourne have swapped third round picks. Adelaide and Melbourne are two teams who finished around the same place on the ladder this year who are clearly targeting higher places next year.
Adelaide now have just pick 4 followed by 64 in this year’s draft. This means that, pending other moves, they have a minimal presence beyond that highly prized top pick. They may be a bit tight on list spots having just signed Neal-Bullen and Cumming this trade period. HPN believes they may have 36 senior players pending further list changes.
Melbourne appear to have indirectly needed this pick for the big swap giving Essendon picks and bid points. Clubs cannot trade a future first if they don’t have a set of 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. That is, by sending Esssendon this pick 46, they can get back a future third, enabling Melbourne to swap their own future first out and Essendon to get a bit more points value.
Verdict: Even swap of nearly the same pick between years.
Melbourne pays the high toll for moving up in the “super draft”
HPN wrote yesterday about the high price clubs were paying for first round picks this year, and how it illustrates the strength of the draft. A very strong seller’s market has resulted for clubs sending out those coveted picks.
Much like the premium the Lions extracted for trading out pick 20 with the Tigers, the Dees have swapped with Essendon for the coveted pick 9, at a value exchange rate of roughly 2:1.
Essendon, fearing other clubs’ high interest in their academy prospect Isaac Kako, was compelled to give up pick 9 in a pick split, in case it was swallowed up in bid matching. However, with the going rate of these picks, they got plenty back from Melbourne for the swap, both increasing their points stock this year and also grabbing a bonus future first from Melbourne. That’s valued here as pick 5 based on their 2024 finishing position.
For Melbourne, this is a lot to give up for pick 9 in this strong draft.
Giving up their future first after finishing 14th is a big bet on themselves for 2025, and that future first could easily, by itself, be higher than pick 9 next year. Melbourne clearly has the intention to heading right back up the ladder next year.
In addition, those picks 28 and 40 are both eminently usable selections in any draft. They would be backing themselves to use picks 5 and 9 well given their read of the draft pools in question. It’s a bold call, but one in line with how most clubs are viewing the draft pool.
Essendon get two things here. First and foremost, their pick splitting comes at a points surplus for this year:
Additionally, given Essendon split their pick and made a points gain, the Melbourne future first is a very valuable return for basically nothing. They’ve not truly given up their first round pick this year and still grabbed a fresh first round pick next year. The only downside is Essendon’s loss of any chance to select from the open draft this year.
Melbourne, for what it’s worth, have provided somewhat of an indicator for what they see the value of picks being this year – with 9 significantly more valuable than 28. That loose line in the sand suggests that 28 (which will likely slide out to 31 or more on draft night) is beyond the talent “cut” line from their perspective.
Verdict: Another lopsided trade in favour of Essendon, the team trading out of this year’s first round. The mooted strength of the talent pool is what might make it look good for Melbourne a few years down the track.
Note: This post is part of a series of posts using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Readers can explore these values with tools such as the HPN Trade Calculator to evaluate potential trades.
Elsewhere, read much more about the method and theory behind PAV. Expressing the value of players and picks in terms of expected future PAV provides a common currency for comparing them in trades and other movements. Players are projected using PAPLEY, a method to derive expected future PAVs.