North Melbourne value in: 1919 points (Jed Anderson 338 points, Pick 38 = 800 points, Pick 40 = 780 points) Hawthorn value in: 1625 points (Pick 15 = 1040 points, pick 55 = 585 points) Verdict: Fair (Hawthorn get back 0.85 points of value for every point let go)
Continue reading »Tag: afl trade period
Jake Carlisle is worth pick 5
Jake Carlisle points value: 1600 (20.3 games per year, age 24, 12 Brownlow votes 2013-15, 62.7% career remaining) One of the biggest looming player movements this off-season is St Kilda’s attempt to bring in Jake Carlisle. There has been debate about what he’s worth, with Essendon convinced he’s worth pick
Continue reading »Sinclair and Jetta – any ruckman in a desert
Lewis Jetta value = 1181 points Callum Sinclair value = 536 points Verdict: unfair trade: West Coast recieve 2.2 points of value for every point they let go. The valuation of water is a difficult thing because it is context dependent. To a dying, parched man in the desert, the value
Continue reading »Harley Rides Into The Sunset #AFLTrades
Harley Bennell’s Player Value – 1584 points Gold Coast value in = 1850 points – 1020 points (Pick 16) and 830 points (Pick 35). Fremantle value in = 2534 points – 1584 points (Harley Bennell) and 950 points (pick 22). Verdict – Unfair trade (Fremantle gains 684 points of pick
Continue reading »For Geelong, The Future is Here with Lachie Henderson #AFLTrades
Lachie Henderson’s Player Value – 1170 points Carlton (expected) value in = 1270 points (2016 Pick 9). Geelong value in = 1170 points (Lachie Henderson). Verdict – Fair trade (Carlton gains 100 points of pick and player value, or 1.085 points back for every point given up). So this
Continue reading »What is Leuenberger worth?
Matthew Leuenberger player value: 647 points (pick 52) (37% of career resources, 5 seasons left, 13 games per season, 108% Brownlow loading) We’ve written before about free agency compensation, its impact on other club’s draft value, and on the argument for just ditching it altogether on the basis that if
Continue reading »Valuing trades, draft picks and players – a review of the theory
Last year HPN tried to answer an age-old question in the sporting world: what is a player really worth? This post will review the theory behind what we’ve been doing. It’s rather long, but should give a pretty thorough understanding of the key points. We have been using a method
Continue reading »Jack Redden Goes West
Jack Redden’s Player Value – 1241 points Brisbane value in = 1000 points (Pick 17). West Coast value in = 1241 points (Jack Redden). Verdict – Fair trade (West Coast gains 241 points of pick and player value, or 1.241 points back for every point given up). Of all
Continue reading »The Jake Melksham Problem
Jake Melksham’s Player Value – 1378 points Essendon value in = 920 points (Pick 25). Melbourne value in = 1378 points (Jake Melksham). Verdict – Unfair trade (Melbourne gains 458 points of pick and player value, or 1.497 points back for every point given up). Jake Melksham, from five years
Continue reading »The Curious Case of Patrick Dangerfield
Patrick Dangerfield’s Player Value – 2859 points Adelaide value in = 2715.75. Pick 9 (1270 points), Pick 28 (890 points) and Dean Gore (555.75 points). Geelong value in = 3429. Dangerfield (2859 points) and Pick 50 (670 points). Verdict – Fair trade, just (Geelong gains 713 points of pick and
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