With the draft drawing ever closer there appears to be movement in the predicted draft order, with a few later movers, and the requisite sliders. For those who missed HPN’s first version of the Consensus Phantom Draft (and the methodology behind it), please check it out here. Remember that this
Continue reading »Introducing the 2015 HPN Consensus Phantom Draft #AFL
At Hurling People Now we do not watch a lot of under-18 football. While we love a good bit of local footy, we have neither the time, the money, or the interest to travel 600km to see the nations’ best juniors. What we do have is a spreadsheet. Several in fact.
Continue reading »Strength of Schedule in the 2016 AFL Fixture
It’s AFL fixture time again, and that means plenty of attempts to evaluate the unbalanced AFL fixture and work out who’s got the soft ride and who’s being screwed by a tough draw. This post is our analysis based on a number of Strength of Schedule calculations. If you want
Continue reading »It’s OVER – Saying goodbye to the 2015 AFL Trade Period
After a hectic last day, the 2015 AFL Trade Period is officially over! Here’s a quick “by-the-numbers” look: 37 trades were lodged; 4 Free Agents moved clubs; 3 Compensation picks were generated; 15 trades involved future draft picks; 7 trades involved draft picks alone; 3 trades were made involving more
Continue reading »In Yarran Richmond Trusts #afltrades
Richmond fill one of their most glaring needs at the deadline, and Carlton accumulate another high pick. Carlton value in = 980 points – Pick 19. Richmond value in = 1312 points – Chris Yarran. Verdict – Unfair trade (Richmond gains 332 points of pick and player value, or 1.34
Continue reading »Western Bulldogs all but pay Sydney to take Michael Talia #afltrades
If Sydney do slightly better in 2016 than they did this year, then the Bulldogs have given Talia away for less than nothing. (Feel free to steal that example of a proper if-then statement, Damo) Sydney value in: 1200 points (Michael Talia 815 points, pick 69 – 385 points Western Bulldogs value in: 400
Continue reading »Swapmageddon – Four swaps involving eight clubs and zero players #AFLtrades
Picks fly every which way as clubs align their selections with their draft strategy. Gold Coast has a bet on a Fremantle slide. Sydney value in: 1630 points (pick 36 – 820 points, pick 37 – 810 points) West Coast value in: 940 points (pick 23) Verdict: Theoretically unfair if
Continue reading »Bastinac, Aish and a variety of draft picks change hands near the death #AFLtrades
Collingwood value in: 2756 points – James Aish (1306 points), pick 34 (840 points), pick 53 (610 points). Value out: 3410 points – pick 26 (910 points), pick 28 (890 points), pick 47 (700 points), 2016 2nd rounder ~ pick 26 (910 points). Total = -654 points. North Melbourne value
Continue reading »Pick swap – Hawthorn 53 and 58 for GWS 48 #AFLtrades
A simple win-win swap of picks, not a “loophole”, not evidence of a broken system. Hawthorn value in: 690 points (pick 48) GWS value in: 1130 points (pick 55 – 585 points, pick 58 – 545 points) Verdict: theoretically unfair but practically win-win. GWS get back 1.63 points of value for what they
Continue reading »Tomas Bugg and the ritualistic exchange of picks #afltrades
Greater Western Sydney value in = 2460 points – Pick 10 (1230 points), Pick 43 (750 points) and Pick 63 (480 points). Melbourne value in = 2873 points – Tomas Bugg (1473 points) and pick 7 (1400 points). Verdict – Fair trade (Melbourne gains 413 points of pick and player
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