This week we’re going to take a look at the question of how reliant teams have been on particular goal kickers. The specific spur for this is the talk of Sydney being overly Franklin-centric but the question is worth looking at more broadly – how much heavy lifting do each
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Round 15 – The Going Gets Tough
As the season keeps on keeping on, and the bye rounds hit the rear view mirror, stability is slowly taking its course (as we mentioned last week). Only one change in the positions this week, with Collingwood leapfrogging Richmond after recording the most uninspiring of wins over Carlton. Richmond likely
Continue reading »Round 15 – What’s up with crowd numbers?
Earlier this week, Rohan Connolly wrote a piece about the state of AFL attendances centred around Collingwood getting their lowest crowds since 1940. His overarching thesis is that recent AFL experimentation with the fixture, specifically in 2014, has disillusioned the MCG-going public, and has caused crowds to be more fickle, and thus
Continue reading »Round 14 AFL ratings – the normalising
This round the only movement in the overall rankings was Collingwood jumping Fremantle. The nature of rating entire seasons is that movement tends to settle down towards the end of the year with weight of information already collected. By round 23, the expected movements should be small as the week will contribute just 4.5% of
Continue reading »Continuity without change (and a round 14 preview)
Continuity is always key A common football truism is that a stable team does better than a chaotic one. But does this hold true when looking at actual results? HPN has looked at the number of players that missed less than two players across the last three years (2014 to
Continue reading »A Way-Too-Early 2017 AFL National Women’s League Power Ranking
On first glance using what’s available, we think a power ranking for the NWL should look something like this:
1 – Fremantle
2 – Brisbane
3/4 – Melbourne/Bulldogs
5/6 – Collingwood/ Carlton
7/8 – GWS/Adelaide
Continue reading »Post round 13 team ratings – just because you don’t play doesn’t mean the ratings stay the same
Geelong are once again on top of our team ratings thanks to a strong performance over the Bulldogs. Also contributing was a pretty poor effort by GWS against a very spirited Essendon. That game may have denied us the sort of hilarious record-breaking scores we were predicting last week, but instead it
Continue reading »So Eddie, When Does A Pattern Form?
This column wouldn’t have been written if not for the hard work of the Outer Sanctum podcast, Josh Pinn, Footy Maths Institute, Andy Maher and Erin Riley. Their work has been invaluable and they get all the credit for bringing this whole episode onto the footy world’s agenda. If you’re
Continue reading »Round 13: The Opponent-Adjusted Coleman
Josh Jenkins is your opponent-adjusted Coleman leader Never ones to miss a chance (justly and unjustly) to call Josh Kennedy a flat-track bully, we’ve taken a look at this season’s 15 leading goalkickers. We’ve looked at who they’ve kicked their goals against in order to see who’s really providing the most value
Continue reading »The AFL National Women’s League – What Do (And Don’t) We Know
After the announcement of the creation of a national women’s Australian Rules competition, HPN thought we’d look at the known knowns and the known unknowns of the new competition. Knowns The Teams On Wednesday 15 June 2016, the eight teams of the inaugural season were announced. They are, along
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