HPN trade analysis roundup – the Penultimate Day

Tomorrow is the final, usually hectic day of the trade period before trades of players close. Now is a good time to collate HPN’s assessments of all the moves to date.

Stay tuned for analysis of tomorrow’s moves, followed by an all-in summary of how everything unfolded after the trade deadline passes.

Note: This article is part of a series using a valuation method called Player Approximate Value (PAV) to evaluate trades for fairness and balance. Elsewhere, you can read much more about the method and theory behind PAVYou can also read about PAPLEY, the projection method used to derive expected future PAVs, which has been revised for 2019.

The 2019 Draft, Trade and Free Agency Period – introductory post.

An overview of HPN’s approach and some FAQs.

Free agency summary

Tomlinson, Ellis, Birchall and Ellis-Yolmen.

Pick Swaps (rolling updated article)

“It’s a little mystifying why the Dees have made this trade and couldn’t find a better way to climb the draft order. On the face, it’s a terrible deal, about as lopsided a pick swap as has been seen in recent memory.”

Tim Kelly

“West Coast have been forced to pay a fair amount for Kelly, the picks Geelong get back projecting to about 30% more than Kelly’s future output.”

Sam Frost 

“Sam Frost’s projected future output is much greater than the difference between the picks, and he may contribute immediately.”

Ed Langdon

“Frost probably left for too little but the Dees are potentially getting good returns here, gaining at a long term contributor at a discount given the years of service he should provide.”

Eddie Betts

“There is still little reason to think his 2019 form wasn’t good enough to be a starter in most teams in the comp, however. The 12.5 PAV of his 2019 season was unsurprisingly mostly up forward, and his 2019 offensive PAV of 9.5 was good for 17th in the comp.”

Jono Patton, Sam Jacobs, Billy Frampton

“Sometimes, the real world throws us a bone, and determines that a group of players are worth the same fairly token pick.”

Dougal Howard and Paddy Ryder

“Port have signed on to a pretty fair deal, upgrading their draft position both this year and next year via pick splitting, in a move that’s typical of their last few seasons. St Kilda get their structural pieces while retaining pick 10 for future trades.”

Hugh Greenwood

“The use of the surplus picks to make moves like this for mature but not fossilised players is exactly what most observers would have expected to see happen as a result of these concessions. More than any other club, they can afford to shed such picks.”

Darcy Cameron

“Darcy Cameron, drafted in 2016, has sat deep enough in Sydney’s ruck pecking order that they used both the preseason signing period and midseason draft to acquire alternative ruck options from South Adelaide”

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