Player Estimated Result Tipping (PERT) – 2018


The Player Estimated Result Tipping (PERT) model predicts games from the selected 22 and how each player has performed in the past, rather than using past results or estimated strengths for the club as a whole as with Elo and related methods. It uses marginal Player Approximate Value (mPAV) to estimate strength in defence, midfield and offence to produce an expected scoreline and margin. Our post introducing the concept explains the method in more detail. This year is a test-run for us.

2018 Tips

Round 13

Home Away Home Points per I50 Away Points per I50 Home I50s Away I50s Home Score Away Score Margin Home Win Probability
Port Adelaide Bulldogs 1.73 1.65 57 48 98 79 19 70.9%
Sydney West Coast 1.74 1.72 49 55 86 96 -10 38.8%
Carlton Fremantle 1.70 1.73 50 55 85 95 -10 38.6%
Gold Coast St Kilda 1.69 1.66 48 57 81 94 -13 35.3%
Hawthorn Adelaide 1.71 1.74 59 45 102 79 23 74.6%
Geelong Richmond 1.73 1.68 49 55 85 93 -8 41.5%

Current Performance

MAE Tips
Cumulative 32.3 73 (69.5%)

Round by round summary

MAE Tips
R1 31.7 6
MAE Tips
R2 39.7 4
MAE Tips
R3 22.9 8
MAE Tips
R4 51.3 5
MAE Tips
R5 31.2 5
MAE Tips
R6 21.7 8
MAE Tips
R7 28.6 8
MAE Tips
R8 18.0 5
MAE Tips
R9 47.9 5
  MAE Tips
R10 22.8 6

MAE Tips
R11 26.1 9

MAE Tips
R12 42.0 4

Tips history

Round 1 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Richmond Carlton 60 26 34 Yes
Essendon Adelaide -10 12 22 No
St Kilda Brisbane 13 25 12 Yes
Port Adelaide Fremantle 74 50 24 Yes
Gold Coast North Melbourne -32 16 48 No
Hawthorn Collingwood 1 34 33 Yes
GWS Western Bulldogs 12 82 70 Yes
Melbourne Geelong 34 -3 37 No
West Coast Sydney -34 -29 5 Yes

note: Round 1 used a beta projection model different to subsequent weeks

Round 2 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Adelaide Richmond -30 36 66 No
North Melbourne St Kilda -33 52 85 No
Carlton Gold Coast -8 -34 26 Yes
Collingwood GWS -22 -16 6 Yes
Brisbane Melbourne -48 -26 22 Yes
Fremantle Essendon -23 16 39 No
Western Bulldogs West Coast 38 -51 89 No
Sydney Port Adelaide -22 -23 1 Yes
Geelong Hawthorn 22 -1 23 No
Round 3 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Carlton Collingwood -10 -24 14 Yes
Port Adelaide Brisbane 42 5 37 Yes
Melbourne North Melbourne 7 37 30 Yes
Gold Coast Fremantle -1 28 29 Yes
Sydney GWS 1 16 15 Yes
St Kilda Adelaide -20 -49 29 Yes
Richmond Hawthorn 1 13 12 Yes
West Coast Geelong 3 15 12 Yes
Bulldogs Essendon -7 21 28 No
Round 4 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Adelaide Collingwood 6 -48 54 No
GWS Fremantle 20 31 11 Yes
Richmond Brisbane 25 93 68 Yes
Bulldogs Sydney -5 -7 2 Yes
West Coast Gold Coast 13 80 67 Yes
North Melbourne Carlton -5 89 94 No
Essendon Port Adelaide -21 22 43 No
Hawthorn Melbourne -10 67 77 No
Geelong St Kilda 1 47 46 Yes
Round 5 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Sydney Adelaide -3 -10 7 Yes
St Kilda GWS -24 0 24 No
Carlton West Coast -32 -10 22 Yes
Port Adelaide Geelong 9 -34 43 No
Fremantle Western Bulldogs 5 54 49 Yes
North Melbourne Hawthorn -5 28 33 No
Brisbane Gold Coast -14 -5 9 Yes
Melbourne Richmond 2 -46 48 No
Collingwood Essendon 2 49 47 Yes
Round 6 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Bulldogs Carlton 16 21 5 Yes
Geelong Sydney 12 -16 28 No
North Melbourne Port Adelaide -8 -33 25 Yes
GWS Brisbane 13 34 21 Yes
Hawthorn St Kilda 4 35 31 Yes
Adelaide Gold Coast 8 48 40 Yes
Essendon Melbourne -21 -36 15 Yes
Collingwood Richmond -13 -43 30 Yes
Fremantle West Coast -8 -8 0 Yes
Round 7 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Geelong GWS 1 61 60 Yes
Bulldogs Gold Coast 10 9 1 Yes
Essendon Hawthorn -21 -23 2 Yes
West Coast Port Adelaide -5 42 47 No
Sydney North Melbourne -4 -2 2 Yes
Adelaide Carlton 7 55 48 Yes
Richmond Fremantle 15 77 62 Yes
St Kilda Melbourne -18 -39 21 Yes
Brisbane Collingwood -21 -7 14 Yes

 

Round 8 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Hawthorn Sydney 17 -8 25 No
GWS West Coast -4 -15 11 Yes
Carlton Essendon -10 13 23 No
Gold Coast Melbourne -32 -69 37 Yes
Port Adelaide Adelaide -2 5 7 No
Fremantle St Kilda -7 30 37 No
Bulldogs Brisbane 15 14 1 Yes
North Melbourne Richmond -19 -10 9 Yes
Collingwood Geelong -9 -21 12 Yes

 

 Round 9 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Adelaide Bulldogs -8 37 45 No
North Melbourne GWS 3 43 40 Yes
Gold Coast Port Adelaide -27 -40 13 Yes
Essendon Geelong -15 34 49 No
Sydney Fremantle 1 59 58 Yes
St Kilda Collingwood -13 -28 15 Yes
Carlton Melbourne -37 -109 72 Yes
Brisbane Hawthorn -29 56 85 No
West Coast Richmond -7 47 54 No

 

Round 10 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Collingwood Bulldogs 12 35 23 Yes
Richmond St Kilda 30 28 2 Yes
Brisbane Sydney -17 -18 1 Yes
Geelong Carlton 30 28 2 Yes
GWS Essendon -1 -35 34 Yes
Hawthorn West Coast 6 -15 21 No
Melbourne Adelaide 27 91 64 Yes
Fremantle North Melbourne 7 -28 35 No

 

Round 11 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Sydney Carlton 16 30 14 Yes
Bulldogs Melbourne -32 -49 17 Yes
Hawthorn Port Adelaide 5 3 2 Yes
Gold Coast Geelong -39 -85 46 Yes
Essendon Richmond -24 -71 47 Yes
West Coast St Kilda 24 13 11 Yes
North Melbourne Brisbane 11 54 43 Yes
Collingwood Fremantle 21 61 40 Yes
Adelaide GWS -1 -16 15 Yes

 

Round 12 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Port Adelaide Richmond -7 14 21 No
Geelong North Melbourne 1 37 36 Yes
GWS Gold Coast 24 108 84 Yes
St Kilda Sydney -14 -71 57 Yes
Brisbane Essendon -12 -22 10 Yes
Fremantle Adelaide -25 3 28 No
Melbourne Collingwood 16 -42 58 No