Player Estimated Result Tipping (PERT) – 2018

The Player Estimated Result Tipping (PERT) model predicts games from the selected 22 and how each player has performed in the past, rather than using past results or estimated strengths for the club as a whole as with Elo and related methods. It uses marginal Player Approximate Value (mPAV) to estimate strength in defence, midfield and offence to produce an expected scoreline and margin. Our post introducing the concept explains the method in more detail. This year is a test-run for us.

2018 Tips

Round 5

Home Away Home Points per I50 Away Points per I50 Home I50s Away I50s Home Score Away Score Margin Home Win Probability
Sydney Adelaide 1.74 1.72 51 54 89 92 -3 46.0%
St Kilda GWS 1.62 1.75 47 57 77 100 -24 25.0%
Carlton West Coast 1.65 1.78 45 60 74 106 -32 18.8%
Port Adelaide Geelong 1.72 1.74 55 49 95 86 9 60.2%
Fremantle Western Bulldogs 1.75 1.68 53 52 92 88 5 55.4%
North Melbourne Hawthorn  1.66 1.64 51 54 84 89 -5 44.5%
Brisbane Gold Coast 1.67 1.69 49 56 81 95 -14 34.2%
Melbourne Richmond
Collingwood Essendon

Previous Rounds

Tipped Actual Error Home probability Result Tipped?
Round 1
Richmond Carlton 60 26 34 94.2% Yes
Essendon Adelaide -10 12 22 38.6% No
St Kilda Brisbane 13 25 12 64.6% Yes
Port Adelaide Fremantle 74 50 24 96.9% Yes
Gold Coast North Melbourne -32 16 48 18.5% No
Hawthorn Collingwood 1 34 33 51.2% Yes
GWS Western Bulldogs 12 82 70 63.6% Yes
Melbourne Geelong 34 -3 37 82.9% No
West Coast Sydney -34 -29 5 17.1% Yes
Round 2
Adelaide Richmond -30 36 66 19.9% No
North Melbourne St Kilda -33 52 85 17.8% No
Carlton Gold Coast -8 -34 26 40.8% Yes
Collingwood GWS -22 -16 6 26.5% Yes
Brisbane Melbourne -48 -26 22 9.7% Yes
Fremantle Essendon -23 16 39 25.6% No
Western Bulldogs West Coast 38 -51 89 85.4% No
Sydney Port Adelaide -22 -23 1 26.5% Yes
Geelong Hawthorn 22 -1 23 73.5% No
Round 3
Carlton Collingwood -10 -24 14 39.1% Yes
Port Adelaide Brisbane 42 5 37 87.7% Yes
Melbourne North Melbourne 7 37 30 58.5% Yes
Gold Coast Fremantle -1 28 29 48.9% Yes
Sydney GWS 1 16 15 50.8% Yes
St Kilda Adelaide -20 -49 29 28.6% Yes
Richmond Hawthorn 1 13 12 51.6% Yes
West Coast Geelong 3 15 12 54.0% Yes
Bulldogs Essendon -7 21 28 42.0% No
Round 4
Adelaide Collingwood 6 -48 54 56.5% No
GWS Fremantle 20 31 11 71.7% Yes
Richmond Brisbane 25 93 68 76.3% Yes
Bulldogs Sydney -5 -7 2 44.2% Yes
West Coast Gold Coast 13 80 67 64.8% Yes
North Melbourne Carlton -5 89 94 43.7% No
Essendon Port Adelaide -21 22 43 27.4% No
Hawthorn Melbourne -10 67 77 39.0% No
Geelong St Kilda 1 47 46 51.2% Yes

Summary

MAE Tips
Cumulative 36.4 23 (63.9%)
MAE Tips
R1 31.7 6
MAE Tips
R2 39.7 4
MAE Tips
R3 22.9 8
MAE Tips
R4 51.3 5