The Player Estimated Result Tipping (PERT) model predicts games from the selected 22 and how each player has performed in the past, rather than using past results or estimated strengths for the club as a whole as with Elo and related methods. It uses marginal Player Approximate Value (mPAV) to estimate strength in defence, midfield and offence to produce an expected scoreline and margin. Our post introducing the concept explains the method in more detail. This year is a test-run for us.
2018 Tips
Round 27
Home |
Away |
Home Points per I50 |
Away Points per I50 |
Home I50s |
Away I50s |
Home Score |
Away Score |
Margin |
Home Win Probability |
West Coast |
Collingwood |
1.74 |
1.72 |
47 |
57 |
82 |
99 |
-16 |
31.9% |
Current Performance
|
MAE |
Tips |
Cumulative |
28.9 |
146 (70.9%) |
Round by round summary
Tips history
Round 1 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Richmond |
Carlton |
60 |
26 |
34 |
Yes |
Essendon |
Adelaide |
-10 |
12 |
22 |
No |
St Kilda |
Brisbane |
13 |
25 |
12 |
Yes |
Port Adelaide |
Fremantle |
74 |
50 |
24 |
Yes |
Gold Coast |
North Melbourne |
-32 |
16 |
48 |
No |
Hawthorn |
Collingwood |
1 |
34 |
33 |
Yes |
GWS |
Western Bulldogs |
12 |
82 |
70 |
Yes |
Melbourne |
Geelong |
34 |
-3 |
37 |
No |
West Coast |
Sydney |
-34 |
-29 |
5 |
Yes |
note: Round 1 used a beta projection model different to subsequent weeks
Round 2 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Adelaide |
Richmond |
-30 |
36 |
66 |
No |
North Melbourne |
St Kilda |
-33 |
52 |
85 |
No |
Carlton |
Gold Coast |
-8 |
-34 |
26 |
Yes |
Collingwood |
GWS |
-22 |
-16 |
6 |
Yes |
Brisbane |
Melbourne |
-48 |
-26 |
22 |
Yes |
Fremantle |
Essendon |
-23 |
16 |
39 |
No |
Western Bulldogs |
West Coast |
38 |
-51 |
89 |
No |
Sydney |
Port Adelaide |
-22 |
-23 |
1 |
Yes |
Geelong |
Hawthorn |
22 |
-1 |
23 |
No |
Round 3 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Carlton |
Collingwood |
-10 |
-24 |
14 |
Yes |
Port Adelaide |
Brisbane |
42 |
5 |
37 |
Yes |
Melbourne |
North Melbourne |
7 |
37 |
30 |
Yes |
Gold Coast |
Fremantle |
-1 |
28 |
29 |
Yes |
Sydney |
GWS |
1 |
16 |
15 |
Yes |
St Kilda |
Adelaide |
-20 |
-49 |
29 |
Yes |
Richmond |
Hawthorn |
1 |
13 |
12 |
Yes |
West Coast |
Geelong |
3 |
15 |
12 |
Yes |
Bulldogs |
Essendon |
-7 |
21 |
28 |
No |
Round 4 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Adelaide |
Collingwood |
6 |
-48 |
54 |
No |
GWS |
Fremantle |
20 |
31 |
11 |
Yes |
Richmond |
Brisbane |
25 |
93 |
68 |
Yes |
Bulldogs |
Sydney |
-5 |
-7 |
2 |
Yes |
West Coast |
Gold Coast |
13 |
80 |
67 |
Yes |
North Melbourne |
Carlton |
-5 |
89 |
94 |
No |
Essendon |
Port Adelaide |
-21 |
22 |
43 |
No |
Hawthorn |
Melbourne |
-10 |
67 |
77 |
No |
Geelong |
St Kilda |
1 |
47 |
46 |
Yes |
Round 5 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Sydney |
Adelaide |
-3 |
-10 |
7 |
Yes |
St Kilda |
GWS |
-24 |
0 |
24 |
No |
Carlton |
West Coast |
-32 |
-10 |
22 |
Yes |
Port Adelaide |
Geelong |
9 |
-34 |
43 |
No |
Fremantle |
Western Bulldogs |
5 |
54 |
49 |
Yes |
North Melbourne |
Hawthorn |
-5 |
28 |
33 |
No |
Brisbane |
Gold Coast |
-14 |
-5 |
9 |
Yes |
Melbourne |
Richmond |
2 |
-46 |
48 |
No |
Collingwood |
Essendon |
2 |
49 |
47 |
Yes |
Round 6 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Bulldogs |
Carlton |
16 |
21 |
5 |
Yes |
Geelong |
Sydney |
12 |
-16 |
28 |
No |
North Melbourne |
Port Adelaide |
-8 |
-33 |
25 |
Yes |
GWS |
Brisbane |
13 |
34 |
21 |
Yes |
Hawthorn |
St Kilda |
4 |
35 |
31 |
Yes |
Adelaide |
Gold Coast |
8 |
48 |
40 |
Yes |
Essendon |
Melbourne |
-21 |
-36 |
15 |
Yes |
Collingwood |
Richmond |
-13 |
-43 |
30 |
Yes |
Fremantle |
West Coast |
-8 |
-8 |
0 |
Yes |
Round 7 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Geelong |
GWS |
1 |
61 |
60 |
Yes |
Bulldogs |
Gold Coast |
10 |
9 |
1 |
Yes |
Essendon |
Hawthorn |
-21 |
-23 |
2 |
Yes |
West Coast |
Port Adelaide |
-5 |
42 |
47 |
No |
Sydney |
North Melbourne |
-4 |
-2 |
2 |
Yes |
Adelaide |
Carlton |
7 |
55 |
48 |
Yes |
Richmond |
Fremantle |
15 |
77 |
62 |
Yes |
St Kilda |
Melbourne |
-18 |
-39 |
21 |
Yes |
Brisbane |
Collingwood |
-21 |
-7 |
14 |
Yes |
Round 8 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Hawthorn |
Sydney |
17 |
-8 |
25 |
No |
GWS |
West Coast |
-4 |
-15 |
11 |
Yes |
Carlton |
Essendon |
-10 |
13 |
23 |
No |
Gold Coast |
Melbourne |
-32 |
-69 |
37 |
Yes |
Port Adelaide |
Adelaide |
-2 |
5 |
7 |
No |
Fremantle |
St Kilda |
-7 |
30 |
37 |
No |
Bulldogs |
Brisbane |
15 |
14 |
1 |
Yes |
North Melbourne |
Richmond |
-19 |
-10 |
9 |
Yes |
Collingwood |
Geelong |
-9 |
-21 |
12 |
Yes |
Round 9 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Adelaide |
Bulldogs |
-8 |
37 |
45 |
No |
North Melbourne |
GWS |
3 |
43 |
40 |
Yes |
Gold Coast |
Port Adelaide |
-27 |
-40 |
13 |
Yes |
Essendon |
Geelong |
-15 |
34 |
49 |
No |
Sydney |
Fremantle |
1 |
59 |
58 |
Yes |
St Kilda |
Collingwood |
-13 |
-28 |
15 |
Yes |
Carlton |
Melbourne |
-37 |
-109 |
72 |
Yes |
Brisbane |
Hawthorn |
-29 |
56 |
85 |
No |
West Coast |
Richmond |
-7 |
47 |
54 |
No |
Round 10 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Collingwood |
Bulldogs |
12 |
35 |
23 |
Yes |
Richmond |
St Kilda |
30 |
28 |
2 |
Yes |
Brisbane |
Sydney |
-17 |
-18 |
1 |
Yes |
Geelong |
Carlton |
30 |
28 |
2 |
Yes |
GWS |
Essendon |
-1 |
-35 |
34 |
Yes |
Hawthorn |
West Coast |
6 |
-15 |
21 |
No |
Melbourne |
Adelaide |
27 |
91 |
64 |
Yes |
Fremantle |
North Melbourne |
7 |
-28 |
35 |
No |
Round 11 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Sydney |
Carlton |
16 |
30 |
14 |
Yes |
Bulldogs |
Melbourne |
-32 |
-49 |
17 |
Yes |
Hawthorn |
Port Adelaide |
5 |
3 |
2 |
Yes |
Gold Coast |
Geelong |
-39 |
-85 |
46 |
Yes |
Essendon |
Richmond |
-24 |
-71 |
47 |
Yes |
West Coast |
St Kilda |
24 |
13 |
11 |
Yes |
North Melbourne |
Brisbane |
11 |
54 |
43 |
Yes |
Collingwood |
Fremantle |
21 |
61 |
40 |
Yes |
Adelaide |
GWS |
-1 |
-16 |
15 |
Yes |
Round 12 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Port Adelaide |
Richmond |
-7 |
14 |
21 |
No |
Geelong |
North Melbourne |
1 |
37 |
36 |
Yes |
GWS |
Gold Coast |
24 |
108 |
84 |
Yes |
St Kilda |
Sydney |
-14 |
-71 |
57 |
Yes |
Brisbane |
Essendon |
-12 |
-22 |
10 |
Yes |
Fremantle |
Adelaide |
-25 |
3 |
28 |
No |
Melbourne |
Collingwood |
16 |
-42 |
58 |
No |
Round 13 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Port Adelaide |
Bulldogs |
25 |
57 |
32 |
Yes |
Sydney |
West Coast |
-10 |
15 |
25 |
No |
Carlton |
Fremantle |
-16 |
-57 |
41 |
Yes |
Gold Coast |
St Kilda |
-16 |
-2 |
14 |
Yes |
Hawthorn |
Adelaide |
34 |
56 |
22 |
Yes |
Geelong |
Richmond |
-7 |
-18 |
11 |
Yes |
Round 14 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
West Coast |
Essendon |
10 |
-28 |
38 |
No |
Port Adelaide |
Melbourne |
-14 |
10 |
24 |
No |
Hawthorn |
Gold Coast |
47 |
53 |
6 |
Yes |
Brisbane |
GWS |
-22 |
-27 |
5 |
Yes |
Bulldogs |
North Melbourne |
-20 |
-2 |
18 |
Yes |
Collingwood |
Carlton |
40 |
20 |
20 |
Yes |
Round 15 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Richmond |
Sydney |
17 |
26 |
9 |
Yes |
Bulldogs |
Geelong |
-23 |
2 |
25 |
No |
Carlton |
Port Adelaide |
-32 |
-21 |
11 |
Yes |
Adelaide |
West Coast |
-10 |
10 |
20 |
No |
Gold Coast |
Collingwood |
-42 |
-39 |
3 |
Yes |
GWS |
Hawthorn |
-7 |
11 |
18 |
No |
Melbourne |
St Kilda |
37 |
-2 |
39 |
No |
Essendon |
North Melbourne |
-1 |
17 |
18 |
No |
Fremantle |
Brisbane |
3 |
-55 |
58 |
No |
Round 16 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Sydney |
Geelong |
-16 |
-12 |
4 |
Yes |
Richmond |
Adelaide |
12 |
47 |
35 |
Yes |
Brisbane |
Carlton |
10 |
65 |
55 |
Yes |
Port Adelaide |
St Kilda |
19 |
36 |
17 |
Yes |
Western Bulldogs |
Hawthorn |
-39 |
-63 |
24 |
Yes |
Melbourne |
Fremantle |
35 |
54 |
19 |
Yes |
North Melbourne |
Gold Coast |
28 |
37 |
9 |
Yes |
Essendon |
Collingwood |
-12 |
-16 |
4 |
Yes |
West Coast |
GWS |
5 |
11 |
6 |
Yes |
Round 17 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Adelaide |
Geelong |
-11 |
15 |
26 |
No |
St Kilda |
Carlton |
16 |
64 |
48 |
Yes |
Hawthorn |
Brisbane |
20 |
-33 |
53 |
No |
Melbourne |
Western Bulldogs |
46 |
50 |
4 |
Yes |
GWS |
Richmond |
-8 |
2 |
10 |
No |
Gold Coast |
Essendon |
-24 |
-44 |
20 |
Yes |
Collingwood |
West Coast |
2 |
-35 |
37 |
No |
North Melbourne |
Sydney |
10 |
-6 |
16 |
No |
Fremantle |
Port Adelaide |
-37 |
9 |
46 |
No |
Round 18 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
St Kilda |
Richmond |
-15 |
-54 |
39 |
Yes |
Collingwood |
North Melbourne |
11 |
66 |
55 |
Yes |
Sydney |
Gold Coast |
30 |
-24 |
54 |
No |
Essendon |
Fremantle |
26 |
29 |
3 |
Yes |
Brisbane |
Adelaide |
-6 |
-5 |
1 |
Yes |
Geelong |
Melbourne |
-9 |
2 |
11 |
No |
Carlton |
Hawthorn |
-25 |
-72 |
47 |
Yes |
West Coast |
Bulldogs |
20 |
54 |
34 |
Yes |
Port Adelaide |
GWS |
-2 |
-22 |
20 |
Yes |
Round 19 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Essendon |
Sydney |
14 |
43 |
29 |
Yes |
Richmond |
Collingwood |
15 |
28 |
13 |
Yes |
Geelong |
Brisbane |
17 |
42 |
25 |
Yes |
GWS |
St Kilda |
8 |
25 |
17 |
Yes |
Gold Coast |
Carlton |
3 |
-35 |
38 |
No |
Adelaide |
Melbourne |
-18 |
-13 |
5 |
Yes |
North Melbourne |
West Coast |
5 |
40 |
35 |
Yes |
Bulldogs |
Port Adelaide |
-25 |
-44 |
19 |
Yes |
Fremantle |
Hawthorn |
-28 |
-59 |
31 |
Yes |
Round 20 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Richmond |
Geelong |
14 |
3 |
11 |
Yes |
Hawthorn |
Essendon |
6 |
4 |
2 |
Yes |
Brisbane |
North Melbourne |
-2 |
-3 |
1 |
Yes |
Adelaide |
Port Adelaide |
-6 |
3 |
9 |
No |
St Kilda |
Bulldogs |
17 |
-35 |
52 |
No |
Sydney |
Collingwood |
-12 |
2 |
14 |
No |
Carlton |
GWS |
-19 |
-105 |
86 |
Yes |
Melbourne |
Gold Coast |
45 |
96 |
51 |
Yes |
West Coast |
Fremantle |
13 |
58 |
45 |
Yes |
Round 21 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Essendon |
St Kilda |
18 |
43 |
25 |
Yes |
Hawthorn |
Geelong |
15 |
11 |
4 |
Yes |
Gold Coast |
Richmond |
-39 |
-74 |
35 |
Yes |
Port Adelaide |
West Coast |
2 |
-4 |
6 |
No |
Collingwood |
Brisbane |
16 |
31 |
15 |
Yes |
GWS |
Adelaide |
1 |
14 |
13 |
Yes |
North Melbourne |
Western Bulldogs |
13 |
-7 |
20 |
No |
Fremantle |
Carlton |
1 |
29 |
28 |
Yes |
Melbourne |
Sydney |
27 |
-9 |
36 |
No |
Round 22 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Richmond |
Essendon |
6 |
8 |
2 |
Yes |
Collingwood |
Port Adelaide |
8 |
51 |
43 |
Yes |
Geelong |
Fremantle |
9 |
133 |
124 |
Yes |
GWS |
Sydney |
1 |
-20 |
21 |
No |
Gold Coast |
Brisbane |
-17 |
-4 |
13 |
Yes |
St Kilda |
Hawthorn |
-24 |
-4 |
20 |
Yes |
Carlton |
Bulldogs |
-16 |
-17 |
1 |
Yes |
West Coast |
Melbourne |
-23 |
-17 |
6 |
Yes |
Adelaide |
North Melbourne |
11 |
9 |
2 |
Yes |
Round 23 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Port Adelaide |
Essendon |
-7 |
-22 |
15 |
Yes |
Geelong |
Gold Coast |
23 |
102 |
79 |
Yes |
Richmond |
Bulldogs |
30 |
3 |
27 |
Yes |
Fremantle |
Collingwood |
-32 |
-9 |
23 |
Yes |
Carlton |
Adelaide |
-32 |
-104 |
72 |
Yes |
Sydney |
Hawthorn |
-31 |
-9 |
22 |
Yes |
Brisbane |
West Coast |
-4 |
-26 |
22 |
Yes |
Melbourne |
GWS |
19 |
45 |
26 |
Yes |
St Kilda |
North Melbourne |
-8 |
-23 |
15 |
Yes |
Round 24 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Richmond |
Hawthorn |
1 |
31 |
30 |
Yes |
Melbourne |
Geelong |
25 |
29 |
4 |
Yes |
Sydney |
GWS |
-11 |
-49 |
38 |
Yes |
West Coast |
Collingwood |
-8 |
16 |
24 |
No |
Round 25 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Hawthorn |
Melbourne |
-14 |
-33 |
19 |
Yes |
Collingwood |
GWS |
10 |
10 |
0 |
Yes |
Round 26 |
|
Tipped |
Actual |
Error |
Result Tipped? |
Richmond |
Collingwood |
7 |
-39 |
46 |
No |
West Coast |
Melbourne |
-27 |
66 |
93 |
No |