Player Estimated Result Tipping (PERT) – 2018

The Player Estimated Result Tipping (PERT) model predicts games from the selected 22 and how each player has performed in the past, rather than using past results or estimated strengths for the club as a whole as with Elo and related methods. It uses marginal Player Approximate Value (mPAV) to estimate strength in defence, midfield and offence to produce an expected scoreline and margin. Our post introducing the concept explains the method in more detail. This year is a test-run for us.

2018 Tips

Round 22

Home Away Home Points per I50 Away Points per I50 Home I50s Away I50s Home Score Away Score Margin Home Win Probability
Richmond Essendon 1.70 1.67 53 51 91 85 6 56.5%
Collingwood Port Adelaide 1.68 1.73 55 49 93 86 7 58.5%
Geelong Fremantle 1.77 1.65 53 52 94 85 9 59.8%
GWS Sydney 1.71 1.74 53 52 91 90 1 51.4%
Gold Coast Brisbane 1.64 1.70 48 56 79 96 -17 31.6%
St Kilda Hawthorn 1.70 1.74 46 59 78 102 -24 25.2%
Carlton Bulldogs 1.72 1.72 48 57 82 98 -16 32.9%
West Coast Melbourne 1.74 1.72 45 59 79 102 -23 25.7%
Adelaide North Melbourne 1.71 1.74 56 49 96 85 11 62.2%

Current Performance

MAE Tips
Cumulative 29.2 116 (68.9%)

Round by round summary

MAE Tips
R1 31.7 6
MAE Tips
R2 39.7 4
MAE Tips
R3 22.9 8
MAE Tips
R4 51.3 5
MAE Tips
R5 31.2 5
MAE Tips
R6 21.7 8
MAE Tips
R7 28.6 8
MAE Tips
R8 18.0 5
MAE Tips
R9 47.9 5
  MAE Tips
R10 22.8 6
MAE Tips
R11 26.1 9
MAE Tips
R12 42.0 4
MAE Tips
R13 24.2 5
MAE Tips
R14 18.5 4
MAE Tips
R15 22.3 3
MAE Tips
R16 19.2 9
MAE Tips
R17 28.9 3
MAE Tips
R18 29.3 7
MAE Tips
R19 23.6 8
MAE Tips
R20 30.1 6
MAE Tips
R21 20.2 6

Tips history

Round 1 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Richmond Carlton 60 26 34 Yes
Essendon Adelaide -10 12 22 No
St Kilda Brisbane 13 25 12 Yes
Port Adelaide Fremantle 74 50 24 Yes
Gold Coast North Melbourne -32 16 48 No
Hawthorn Collingwood 1 34 33 Yes
GWS Western Bulldogs 12 82 70 Yes
Melbourne Geelong 34 -3 37 No
West Coast Sydney -34 -29 5 Yes

note: Round 1 used a beta projection model different to subsequent weeks

Round 2 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Adelaide Richmond -30 36 66 No
North Melbourne St Kilda -33 52 85 No
Carlton Gold Coast -8 -34 26 Yes
Collingwood GWS -22 -16 6 Yes
Brisbane Melbourne -48 -26 22 Yes
Fremantle Essendon -23 16 39 No
Western Bulldogs West Coast 38 -51 89 No
Sydney Port Adelaide -22 -23 1 Yes
Geelong Hawthorn 22 -1 23 No
Round 3 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Carlton Collingwood -10 -24 14 Yes
Port Adelaide Brisbane 42 5 37 Yes
Melbourne North Melbourne 7 37 30 Yes
Gold Coast Fremantle -1 28 29 Yes
Sydney GWS 1 16 15 Yes
St Kilda Adelaide -20 -49 29 Yes
Richmond Hawthorn 1 13 12 Yes
West Coast Geelong 3 15 12 Yes
Bulldogs Essendon -7 21 28 No
Round 4 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Adelaide Collingwood 6 -48 54 No
GWS Fremantle 20 31 11 Yes
Richmond Brisbane 25 93 68 Yes
Bulldogs Sydney -5 -7 2 Yes
West Coast Gold Coast 13 80 67 Yes
North Melbourne Carlton -5 89 94 No
Essendon Port Adelaide -21 22 43 No
Hawthorn Melbourne -10 67 77 No
Geelong St Kilda 1 47 46 Yes
Round 5 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Sydney Adelaide -3 -10 7 Yes
St Kilda GWS -24 0 24 No
Carlton West Coast -32 -10 22 Yes
Port Adelaide Geelong 9 -34 43 No
Fremantle Western Bulldogs 5 54 49 Yes
North Melbourne Hawthorn -5 28 33 No
Brisbane Gold Coast -14 -5 9 Yes
Melbourne Richmond 2 -46 48 No
Collingwood Essendon 2 49 47 Yes
Round 6 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Bulldogs Carlton 16 21 5 Yes
Geelong Sydney 12 -16 28 No
North Melbourne Port Adelaide -8 -33 25 Yes
GWS Brisbane 13 34 21 Yes
Hawthorn St Kilda 4 35 31 Yes
Adelaide Gold Coast 8 48 40 Yes
Essendon Melbourne -21 -36 15 Yes
Collingwood Richmond -13 -43 30 Yes
Fremantle West Coast -8 -8 0 Yes
Round 7 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Geelong GWS 1 61 60 Yes
Bulldogs Gold Coast 10 9 1 Yes
Essendon Hawthorn -21 -23 2 Yes
West Coast Port Adelaide -5 42 47 No
Sydney North Melbourne -4 -2 2 Yes
Adelaide Carlton 7 55 48 Yes
Richmond Fremantle 15 77 62 Yes
St Kilda Melbourne -18 -39 21 Yes
Brisbane Collingwood -21 -7 14 Yes
Round 8 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Hawthorn Sydney 17 -8 25 No
GWS West Coast -4 -15 11 Yes
Carlton Essendon -10 13 23 No
Gold Coast Melbourne -32 -69 37 Yes
Port Adelaide Adelaide -2 5 7 No
Fremantle St Kilda -7 30 37 No
Bulldogs Brisbane 15 14 1 Yes
North Melbourne Richmond -19 -10 9 Yes
Collingwood Geelong -9 -21 12 Yes
 Round 9 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Adelaide Bulldogs -8 37 45 No
North Melbourne GWS 3 43 40 Yes
Gold Coast Port Adelaide -27 -40 13 Yes
Essendon Geelong -15 34 49 No
Sydney Fremantle 1 59 58 Yes
St Kilda Collingwood -13 -28 15 Yes
Carlton Melbourne -37 -109 72 Yes
Brisbane Hawthorn -29 56 85 No
West Coast Richmond -7 47 54 No
Round 10 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Collingwood Bulldogs 12 35 23 Yes
Richmond St Kilda 30 28 2 Yes
Brisbane Sydney -17 -18 1 Yes
Geelong Carlton 30 28 2 Yes
GWS Essendon -1 -35 34 Yes
Hawthorn West Coast 6 -15 21 No
Melbourne Adelaide 27 91 64 Yes
Fremantle North Melbourne 7 -28 35 No
Round 11 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Sydney Carlton 16 30 14 Yes
Bulldogs Melbourne -32 -49 17 Yes
Hawthorn Port Adelaide 5 3 2 Yes
Gold Coast Geelong -39 -85 46 Yes
Essendon Richmond -24 -71 47 Yes
West Coast St Kilda 24 13 11 Yes
North Melbourne Brisbane 11 54 43 Yes
Collingwood Fremantle 21 61 40 Yes
Adelaide GWS -1 -16 15 Yes
Round 12 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Port Adelaide Richmond -7 14 21 No
Geelong North Melbourne 1 37 36 Yes
GWS Gold Coast 24 108 84 Yes
St Kilda Sydney -14 -71 57 Yes
Brisbane Essendon -12 -22 10 Yes
Fremantle Adelaide -25 3 28 No
Melbourne Collingwood 16 -42 58 No
Round 13 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Port Adelaide Bulldogs 25 57 32 Yes
Sydney West Coast -10 15 25 No
Carlton Fremantle -16 -57 41 Yes
Gold Coast St Kilda -16 -2 14 Yes
Hawthorn Adelaide 34 56 22 Yes
Geelong Richmond -7 -18 11 Yes
Round 14 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
West Coast Essendon 10 -28 38 No
Port Adelaide Melbourne -14 10 24 No
Hawthorn Gold Coast 47 53 6 Yes
Brisbane GWS -22 -27 5 Yes
Bulldogs North Melbourne -20 -2 18 Yes
Collingwood Carlton 40 20 20 Yes
Round 15 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Richmond Sydney 17 26 9 Yes
Bulldogs Geelong -23 2 25 No
Carlton Port Adelaide -32 -21 11 Yes
Adelaide West Coast -10 10 20 No
Gold Coast Collingwood -42 -39 3 Yes
GWS Hawthorn -7 11 18 No
Melbourne St Kilda 37 -2 39 No
Essendon North Melbourne -1 17 18 No
Fremantle Brisbane 3 -55 58 No
Round 16 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Sydney Geelong -16 -12 4 Yes
Richmond Adelaide 12 47 35 Yes
Brisbane Carlton 10 65 55 Yes
Port Adelaide St Kilda 19 36 17 Yes
Western Bulldogs Hawthorn -39 -63 24 Yes
Melbourne Fremantle 35 54 19 Yes
North Melbourne Gold Coast 28 37 9 Yes
Essendon Collingwood -12 -16 4 Yes
West Coast GWS 5 11 6 Yes
Round 17 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Adelaide Geelong -11 15 26 No
St Kilda Carlton 16 64 48 Yes
Hawthorn Brisbane 20 -33 53 No
Melbourne Western Bulldogs 46 50 4 Yes
GWS Richmond -8 2 10 No
Gold Coast Essendon -24 -44 20 Yes
Collingwood West Coast 2 -35 37 No
North Melbourne Sydney 10 -6 16 No
Fremantle Port Adelaide -37 9 46 No
Round 18 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
St Kilda Richmond -15 -54 39 Yes
Collingwood North Melbourne 11 66 55 Yes
Sydney Gold Coast 30 -24 54 No
Essendon Fremantle 26 29 3 Yes
Brisbane Adelaide -6 -5 1 Yes
Geelong Melbourne -9 2 11 No
Carlton Hawthorn -25 -72 47 Yes
West Coast Bulldogs 20 54 34 Yes
Port Adelaide GWS -2 -22 20 Yes
Round 19 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Essendon Sydney 14 43 29 Yes
Richmond Collingwood 15 28 13 Yes
Geelong Brisbane 17 42 25 Yes
GWS St Kilda 8 25 17 Yes
Gold Coast Carlton 3 -35 38 No
Adelaide Melbourne -18 -13 5 Yes
North Melbourne West Coast 5 40 35 Yes
Bulldogs Port Adelaide -25 -44 19 Yes
Fremantle Hawthorn -28 -59 31 Yes
Round 20 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Richmond Geelong 14 3 11 Yes
Hawthorn Essendon 6 4 2 Yes
Brisbane North Melbourne -2 -3 1 Yes
Adelaide Port Adelaide -6 3 9 No
St Kilda Bulldogs 17 -35 52 No
Sydney Collingwood -12 2 14 No
Carlton GWS -19 -105 86 Yes
Melbourne Gold Coast 45 96 51 Yes
West Coast Fremantle 13 58 45 Yes
Round 21 Tipped Actual Error Result Tipped?
Essendon St Kilda 18 43 25 Yes
Hawthorn Geelong 15 11 4 Yes
Gold Coast Richmond -39 -74 35 Yes
Port Adelaide West Coast 2 -4 6 No
Collingwood Brisbane 16 31 15 Yes
GWS Adelaide 1 14 13 Yes
North Melbourne Western Bulldogs 13 -7 20 No
Fremantle Carlton 1 29 28 Yes
Melbourne Sydney 27 -9 36 No