Tom Bell’s Player Value – 1180 points Carlton value in = 1480 points – 960 points (Pick 21) and 520 points (Pick 60). Brisbane value in = 1950 points – 1180 points (Tom Bell) and 770 points (pick 41). Verdict – Unfair trade (Brisbane gains 470 points of pick and
Continue reading »Walker and Jansen to Brisbane – one of them is “steak knives” #afltrades
The swap of both players for a single pick that will be no higher than 37 suggests Geelong do not value one or both of these players very highly. Brisbane value in: 1480 points (Jansen 741 points, Walker 739 points) Geelong value in: 800 points (Brisbnae’s 2016 third round pick,
Continue reading »GWS fringe player jamboree – Hampton and Townsend #AFLTrades
Curtly Hampton for Adelaide’s 2016 second round pick GWS value in: 870 points (Adelaide 2016 second round pick ~31). Adelaide value in: 1055 points (Curtly Hampton). Verdict: Fair (Adelaide gains 185 points, and recieve 1.21 points for every point given up). Jacob Townsend and pick 120 for pick 60 GWS value
Continue reading »In Jed We Trust – Anderson to North #AFLTrades
North Melbourne value in: 1919 points (Jed Anderson 338 points, Pick 38 = 800 points, Pick 40 = 780 points) Hawthorn value in: 1625 points (Pick 15 = 1040 points, pick 55 = 585 points) Verdict: Fair (Hawthorn get back 0.85 points of value for every point let go)
Continue reading »Jake Carlisle is worth pick 5
Jake Carlisle points value: 1600 (20.3 games per year, age 24, 12 Brownlow votes 2013-15, 62.7% career remaining) One of the biggest looming player movements this off-season is St Kilda’s attempt to bring in Jake Carlisle. There has been debate about what he’s worth, with Essendon convinced he’s worth pick
Continue reading »Sinclair and Jetta – any ruckman in a desert
Lewis Jetta value = 1181 points Callum Sinclair value = 536 points Verdict: unfair trade: West Coast recieve 2.2 points of value for every point they let go. The valuation of water is a difficult thing because it is context dependent. To a dying, parched man in the desert, the value
Continue reading »Harley Rides Into The Sunset #AFLTrades
Harley Bennell’s Player Value – 1584 points Gold Coast value in = 1850 points – 1020 points (Pick 16) and 830 points (Pick 35). Fremantle value in = 2534 points – 1584 points (Harley Bennell) and 950 points (pick 22). Verdict – Unfair trade (Fremantle gains 684 points of pick
Continue reading »For Geelong, The Future is Here with Lachie Henderson #AFLTrades
Lachie Henderson’s Player Value – 1170 points Carlton (expected) value in = 1270 points (2016 Pick 9). Geelong value in = 1170 points (Lachie Henderson). Verdict – Fair trade (Carlton gains 100 points of pick and player value, or 1.085 points back for every point given up). So this
Continue reading »What is Leuenberger worth?
Matthew Leuenberger player value: 647 points (pick 52) (37% of career resources, 5 seasons left, 13 games per season, 108% Brownlow loading) We’ve written before about free agency compensation, its impact on other club’s draft value, and on the argument for just ditching it altogether on the basis that if
Continue reading »Valuing trades, draft picks and players – a review of the theory
Last year HPN tried to answer an age-old question in the sporting world: what is a player really worth? This post will review the theory behind what we’ve been doing. It’s rather long, but should give a pretty thorough understanding of the key points. We have been using a method
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