In valuing Brett Deledio, who has probably been Richmond’s best player at points in his career, two factors stand out to (perhaps surprisingly) undervalue him. He’s a former number 1 pick, whatever that still means for a bloke who turns 30 next year, but counting against him is his somewhat questionable durability and aforementioned age:
HPN’s system of player valuation looks at expected future yields in terms of games played, in order to come up with the draft pick/s equivalent to that value.
Deledio falls down a little on the quantity of output question, as after five years of barely missing a game, his last three years have seen him play 19, 18 and most recently 11 games. That, plus the fact that he turns 30 next year, suggests his best output may be behind him. This would be Geelong’s (or Richmond) risk; continued reduced output in years to come.
Below is what would be a fair trade in terms of balance of risk:
We have rated Deledio as likely to contribute about 88 games of average quality from here on out (with his elite weighting from Brownlow votes and AA selection, it’s actually more like 70 at above average output). That’s about what you’d expect from the average pick 36 player.
However, given that most of the second round of the draft has similar expectations in terms of player output, anything up to pick 14 would not be unreasonable for Richmond to ask. With Deledio’s talismanic importance to the Tigers and the fact that he’s under contract for 2017, we’d be surprised if he gets to Geelong for our rating of “fair” value.
Verdict: A fair trade heads up, but expect an extra pick (or a swap of picks) to be involved.
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