Phew! After a slow start to the trade period, the pace seemed to intensify as the deadline drew closer. As this post will cover all 39 trades, and the HPN valuations of the trades, we’ll keep the intro brief. For a full recap of all movement on an easy to read webpage, check out Draft Guru. As always:
NOTE: We do not use the AFL draft points system to rate players or picks. We instead use our own system that attempts to compare both players and picks directly, using a common currency of “quality-adjusted expected future games output“. Fuller discussions of method and theory are located here and here. Hit us up on Twitter if you’d like to discuss.
Cameron McCarthy to Fremantle
Verdict: The trade made values McCarthy as having negative value considering the other assets involved. If McCarthy can regain his form from the first half of 2015, Fremantle will have a great deal on their hands.
Brad Hill to Fremantle
Verdict: Brad Hill is a very polarizing player it seems – more people complained with our rating of Hill than any other rating to date. At just 23, Hill looks to be a solid contributor for the best part of the next decade. HPN rates Fremantle as massive winners here (again).
Pick swap between Brisbane and GWS
Verdict: A nearly perfectly balanced exchange of picks that seemingly gives both clubs what they want.
Jack Steele to St Kilda
Verdict: Both clubs receive something that they will be able to get more use out of than the other club could. St Kilda will give the talented Jack Steele plenty of game time, and GWS can get extra bidding point value out of the pick due to the 20% point discount in bid-matching.
Sam Mitchell to West Coast
Verdict: Did this one actually happen? Did Sam Mitchell really leave the Hawks? A club legend moves west to begin his eventual transition to the coaching box, and both sides are reasonable about the value of him. Perhaps the most reasonable trade of the period involving a player so far.
Tom Mitchell to Hawthorn
Verdict: Hawthorn decided they couldn’t go on without a Mitchell in the middle, and Tom is a massive upgrade to their long term prospects. Hawthorn get an absolute bargain here for the talent young player, giving up only their first round pick for a player likely to produce a lot more value than that pick would have (the pick swap doesn’t matter).
Pick swap between Hawthorn and St Kilda
Verdict: What were Hawthorn thinking here? Hawthorn pay massive overs in a desperate attempt to get a pick in order to facilitate the O’Meara trade. St Kilda downgrade slightly, and get two good chances this year and one very good one next to further strengthen their list.
Paul Ahern to North Melbourne
Verdict: GWS cast aside damaged goods for essentially nothing, North get a shot at a recent high draft pick with basically zero downside.
Pearce Hanley to Gold Coast with Port Adelaide involved
Verdict: Gold Coast overpay for a bloke with a short shelf-life, demonstrating that they will pay a pick premium in the pursuit of established players. Brisbane win big in expected future output.
Port Adelaide move more value into this year’s draft. Contrary to popular perception, looking at the actual productivity of the two draft picks they obtain shows Port don’t really go backwards here unless they tumble a long way down the ladder in 2017.
Jordan Lewis to Melbourne
Verdict: The Demons get a steal as Lewis is traded for the equivalent of pick 84.
Joel Hamling to Fremantle
Verdict: Fair for a player who has had one great season but not a long track record. The balance of this trade depends on how we view the risk of Hamling failing to live up to his 2016 performance.
Michael Hibberd to Melbourne
Verdict: Fair trade, but likely to favour the Demons if Hibberd’s year away from football hasn’t negatively affected him
Dion Prestia to Richmond
Verdict: Just fair, but Richmond’s bet on themselves rising up the ladder doesn’t change the value of their second round pick very much, so a limited upside versus the straight swap of 6 for Prestia.
Toby Nankervis to Richmond
Verdict: Very close to the mark for a developing ruckman low on the Swans’ depth chart, based on his former draft pick.
The Suns and Bulldogs swap picks
Verdict: This is a simple 2-for-1 trade, a win-win for both parties’ draft goals.
Jarrod Witts to Gold Coast
Verdict: Witts might represent the Suns’ best chance at a top shelf ruckman, and this trade is slightly in their favour.
Nathan Hrovat to North Melbourne
Verdict: A new start for Hrovat. Nearly a freebie for North, and the Bulldogs do not attempt to extract much value in this move.
Shane Kersten to Fremantle
Verdict: Quite clearly Geelong didn’t rate Kersten, as Fremantle steal for a song, or part-thereof.
Tuohy to Geelong, and Smedts to Carlton
Verdict: Geelong get a creative runner off half back, and Carlton get a bunch of hope.
Josh Caddy to Richmond
Verdict: It seems that Richmond are getting a really good deal for Caddy here, even without considering the exchange of later picks.
A Richmond win, as Geelong tries to claw back into the draft.
The Giants and Swans swap picks
Verdict: Notionally quite unfair but Sydney only lose value they weren’t going to use.
Jarryd Lyons to Gold Coast
Verdict: Lyons has been traded for the lower end of the reasonable range. Fair trade, but Gold Coast might end up ahead in the long run.
Patrick McKenna to Melbourne
Verdict: The trade nets GWS a tiny upgrade on Academy points and presumably disposes of a player who is surplus to requirements. Very clear win for Melbourne. Or more likely Casey.
Nathan Vardy to West Coast
Verdict: Token pick for nearly valueless player.
Travis Cloke to Western Bulldogs
Verdict: The Dogs should get more out of Cloke than out of pick 76.
James Stewart to Essendon
Verdict: It’s a wonderful trade for Essendon, as Stewart goes to star in the Essendon story. Vertigo.
Aaron Black to Geelong
Verdict: Pick 92 comes after the point at which picks likely have literally zero value. Most picks at this point aren’t used, and we’re unsure if North will be the exception to this rule. Black is treated like a virtual delisting.
Will Hoskin-Elliott to Collingwood
Verdict: It’s unlikely that Hoskin-Elliott would have cracked into the Giants best 22 this season, but has a clear place at Collingwood. His best is very good – but his worst was sub-NEAFL level. This deal is all contingent on Hoskin-Elliott’s improvement. If it continues to stagnate, this is a really smart deal by GWS.
Jack Frost to Brisbane
Verdict: The Lions have done really well out of this deal, and the Pies leave us scratching our heads. Frost might not set the world on fire, but he should fill a role for the Lions, and right now that should be enough.
Lynden Dunn to Collingwood
Verdict: Dunn should play every week at a vaguely AFL-standard level in whatever role is needed down back, and that’s what the Pies need. Dunn has been valued by this trade as being virtually worthless, meaning that Collingwood might have a steal on their hands if they can get even 10 games out of him.
Marley Williams to North Melbourne
Verdict: This isn’t a trade.
The Hawks and Blues swap picks
Verdict: Carlton take Hawthorn for a ride, but Hawthorn get what they need.
Rhys Palmer to Carlton
Verdict: THIS IS NOT A TRADE!
Pickett and Marchbank to Carlton
Verdict: Marchbank and Pickett are each being valued as still worth top-ten picks, due to having been recently drafted with picks 4 and 6. They’re being let go for a lot less than that. Marchbank particularly showed a lot of promise in 2016. Carlton make big gains in isolation on this trade, GWS lose more players cheaply and gain academy bidding currency.
Jaeger O’Meara to Hawthorn
Verdict: Pretty fair in isolation, but this trade is part of a bigger picture. Hawthorn took resource-conversion hits in trades with Fremantle, St Kilda and Carlton to make this happen.
Port Adelaide and Sydney swap picks
Verdict: This is perfection. We are not worthy.
Koby Stevens to St Kilda
Verdict: The net difference in the pick swap suggests a valuation of Stevens of around 244 points, or an expected 24 games of value. This is obviously a bar which Stevens should pass handily.
St Kilda have a potential steal here.
Fremantle and Gold Coast swap picks
Verdict: The Dockers get a higher pick this year in exchange for a second-rounder next year.
Brett Deledio to GWS
Verdict: Richmond are entering a semi-rebuild phase, and it is unlikely that Deledio will be there to help them win in the future. But GWS are already there, and Deledio will step in right away and contribute.
A big Richmond win, but if Deledio helps the Giants win a flag it will be just the cost of doing business.
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