HPN on ABC: Christian Petracca and the best players of 2021 (so far)

This week on the ABC, HPN had a look at what makes Christian Petracca great and whether it was wise to sign Petracca to such a long contract. It’s a good piece, and well worth a read.

As is normally the case, there’s some overflow information that didn’t make it into the piece for whatever reason. Here’s the best and rest of Christian Petracca.

Beat the internet with Christian Petracca

The thing with the internet becoming ubiquitous in modern society is that everything seems to be recorded, even things that maybe should be forgotten. In order to write each week, HPN undertakes what is now called a “desktop review” by consultants everywhere.

Basically, that’s a lot of researching and reading. Thanks to the modern condition of being terminally online, it’s much easier researching younger players than older. Finding footage from Lachie Neale before he made the AFL took hours. Finding similar footage for Christian Petracca took seconds.

There was a series of articles, videos and podcasts focusing on his draft year – something that would have been impossible just two decades ago. This article by Callum Twomey in particular shines a light on his character pre-draft.

But this probably isn’t the best draft-related content involving Petracca. Let’s go back to the wild and crazy times of… 2019, where the AFL looked to ramp up its draft content.

Think Taskmaster without comedians. Or jokes. But the vibe is there. Well, something is there. This isn’t the only part – it’s an entire series.

The piece touched on where Petracca came from – Warrandyte. In his u18 year, five players from the smallish area made the Vic Metro squad – basically unheard of. Of the rest of the crop, Jason Castagna (actually from beyond Warrandyte) is probably the best known.

Petracca narrating?

Apparently this website is a partnership between Melbourne FC and Monash. Enjoy it. Breathe it in.

The piece also talked about his journey back from injury. It was a long and arduous path, as documented by then Melbourne physio Joel Ames. Local paper, the Warrandyte Diary, also talked to Petracca while he was injured.

Here’s a quote from the piece:

MD: And the family?

CP: They’ve done everything, I get home, they’ve probably seen I’ve had a bad day and they give a lot of sup- port. My brothers haven’t changed and that’s probably the best thing, they’ve kept on telling me to suck it up. I don’t want them to change just because I’ve done a knee, or become an AFL footballer or anything, but it’s good because we haven’t changed at all. Mum and Dad have been really good the whole year, even off the field, just helping me through and it’s what I needed.

That’s not everything on Petracca, but to take a leaf from the books of the Petracca brothers, suck it up.

So how much is Petracca worth?

The reported terms of the Petracca deal are seven years, a little more than a million a year. That’s a lot of cash.

Last year HPN built a Salary Prediction Tool based on our PAPLEY prediction system. While the system hasn’t been fully updated for 2021 yet, a quick look at the system estimates that his “fair” value, based on the current TPP amount and excluding third party deals, is about $950,000.

That puts it at a slight overpay, just over odds absent other context. However, Petracca also has a year on his current deal before his extension kicks in, likely at a far lower salary negotiated when he was a lesser player. When factoring this in, and the likelihood that the TPP cap will rise over the next eight years, Petracca’s reported salary is in line with what he “should” earn.

That’s before the third party allowance is considered, which should make it even more favourable for Melbourne. Without clear salary information, the best that can be worked out is if it seems in the ballpark of fair, but from the outside it seems to be the case.

And who is the best so far in 2021?

As always, HPN is tracking the PAV of each player in the league. Two months is a fair enough sample size to see who is performing at their peak, and who is struggling a little.

Player
TM
GM
Off PAV
Def PAV
Mid PAV
Total PAV
Off mPAV
Def mPAV
Mid mPAV
Total mPAV
Macrae, JackWB126.204.5514.8425.590.4260.0472.4120.962
Oliver, ClaytonME126.015.9514.5426.510.3830.3702.3441.032
Parish, DarcyES127.453.2815.3926.120.714-0.2462.5391.003
Laird, RoryAD124.312.7312.0819.12-0.008-0.3721.7780.466
Merrett, ZachES126.504.8810.4821.850.4940.1211.4100.675
Mitchell, TomHW113.743.117.2214.07-0.141-0.2850.6610.079
Walsh, SamCA125.533.0210.4619.010.272-0.3061.4060.457
Gaff, AndrewWC124.183.997.6215.79-0.038-0.0820.7520.211
Wines, OlliePA115.363.4511.6420.450.233-0.2071.6780.568
Keays, BenAD125.473.3012.5221.300.259-0.2401.8800.633
Petracca, ChristianME128.952.7515.0726.781.059-0.3682.4671.053
Lyons, JarrydBL125.733.8512.5822.160.317-0.1151.8940.699
Sheed, DomWC125.394.2010.9320.520.239-0.0351.5150.573
Lloyd, JakeSY121.8112.603.0917.51-0.5831.899-0.2880.342
Taranto, TimGW114.643.899.0217.550.066-0.1061.0760.345
Crisp, JackCW124.399.267.3520.990.0091.1290.6910.610
Steele, JackSK125.963.7611.3021.020.371-0.1351.5990.612
Bontempelli, MarcusWB1211.336.2914.8032.431.6070.4472.4051.486
Parker, LukeSY126.232.8310.5819.640.434-0.3501.4320.505
Mundy, DavidFR126.273.0612.4221.740.442-0.2971.8550.667
Mills, CallumSY124.426.509.5620.490.0170.4961.2000.571
Rich, DanielBL122.5213.783.7820.08-0.4202.170-0.1310.539
Guthrie, CameronGE103.964.3211.7320.010.0020.0921.9680.688
Redden, JackWC122.613.828.3414.77-0.399-0.1220.9180.133
Seedsman, PaulAD126.684.517.6018.790.5360.0360.7490.440
Brayshaw, AndrewFR113.614.357.9415.90-0.0950.0910.9930.330
Docherty, SamCA122.0410.133.9516.13-0.5311.330-0.0900.236
Hopper, JacobGW115.882.9110.4419.230.351-0.3301.4020.475
McCluggage, HughBL128.204.388.5221.100.8860.0070.9600.618
Ziebell, JackNM111.2911.301.4814.06-0.7041.599-0.6600.078
Miller, ToukGC103.994.418.0416.440.0090.1171.0340.387
Cripps, PatrickCA125.722.159.9817.850.317-0.5061.2960.369
Zorko, DayneBL128.344.8012.8425.990.9180.1051.9540.992
Liberatore, TomWB125.323.3217.7426.380.224-0.2363.0801.023
Curnow, EdCA125.122.929.0117.050.178-0.3281.0720.307
Dale, BaileyWB123.6110.934.3418.87-0.1711.513-0.0020.447
McGrath, AndrewES123.443.739.0416.21-0.209-0.1411.0780.243
Boak, TravisPA105.903.2011.6220.720.492-0.1891.9400.747
Kelly, TimWC116.382.0611.8820.320.601-0.4831.9810.699
Kennedy, JoshSY124.202.1610.1316.49-0.034-0.5031.3290.264
Short, JaydenRI121.7512.792.9117.45-0.5971.942-0.3300.338
Pendlebury, ScottCW125.083.068.1316.270.170-0.2970.8700.247
Hind, NickES124.446.705.3316.470.0220.5400.2260.262
Simpkin, JyNM113.512.539.1415.18-0.192-0.4191.1020.164
Salem, ChristianME111.8110.493.1315.43-0.5461.633-0.2150.291
Smith, BaileyWB124.353.337.5115.190.001-0.2340.7280.165
Selwood, JoelGE115.323.7511.7320.790.223-0.1381.6970.594
Fyfe, NatFR114.553.4610.2818.300.142-0.1321.5800.530
Ellis, BrandonGC113.986.204.2814.46-0.0860.425-0.0150.108
Sidebottom, SteeleCW113.943.667.2814.89-0.012-0.0810.8280.245
Stewart, TomGE111.5014.042.2917.84-0.6542.229-0.4720.368
Ward, CallanGW114.653.167.5215.320.069-0.2730.7280.175
Kelly, JoshGW117.013.727.3218.040.612-0.1450.6830.383
Daniel, CalebWB112.027.863.4513.33-0.4920.972-0.1340.115
Langdon, EdME114.794.903.2912.980.2020.230-0.1740.086
Dawson, JordanSY121.5515.472.8319.84-0.6442.557-0.3490.521
Martin, DustinRI119.191.229.5019.901.305-0.6941.3830.665
Crouch, BradSK102.842.468.1713.48-0.216-0.3201.2560.240
Serong, CalebFR124.422.499.1516.070.018-0.4261.1050.232
Amon, KarlPA114.296.395.6616.34-0.0140.4700.3010.253
Langford, KyleES125.662.155.2413.050.302-0.5060.2050.000
Anderson, NoahGC112.204.427.5414.16-0.4930.0160.7330.085
Swallow, DavidGC113.714.226.5614.48-0.147-0.0300.5090.110
Baker, LiamRI122.515.225.1812.91-0.4230.2020.190-0.010
Billings, JackSK127.113.364.4614.930.634-0.2280.0270.144
Impey, JarmanHW113.057.492.8913.43-0.2990.723-0.3360.029
Cumming, IsaacGW110.7510.312.5513.61-0.8261.371-0.4140.044
Treloar, AdamWB105.191.669.3816.220.432-0.5421.5880.492
Maynard, BraydenCW121.5011.822.2415.56-0.6561.719-0.4850.193
Smith, BrodieAD122.6411.154.2418.03-0.3921.564-0.0250.382
Smith, IsaacGE115.026.625.3216.950.1540.5220.2240.300
Ash, LachieGW111.297.552.6211.46-0.7020.736-0.398-0.122
Heppell, DysonES101.106.042.199.33-0.6970.668-0.396-0.142
Cunnington, BenNM93.711.4410.1615.310.043-0.5951.8560.435
Sinclair, JackSK123.126.685.0514.85-0.2830.5360.1620.138
Ross, SebastianSK113.253.556.6613.47-0.183-0.1090.6720.127
Hardwick, BlakeHW111.7211.932.1615.82-0.6031.744-0.5030.213
Hunter, LachieWB116.333.815.7715.900.589-0.0450.4470.330
Florent, OliverSY124.114.596.9515.65-0.0540.0550.6000.200
Sholl, LachlanAD123.804.104.6012.50-0.125-0.0570.057-0.042
Robinson, MitchBL124.675.946.8917.500.0750.3660.5850.342
Ridley, JordanES110.4312.710.9214.05-0.8922.188-0.7700.175
Saad, AdamCA123.267.614.3115.18-0.2490.751-0.0090.164
Noble, JohnCW121.945.692.7510.38-0.5530.309-0.367-0.204
Quaynor, IsaacCW121.5510.322.3614.23-0.6451.373-0.4560.091
Daicos, JoshCW124.242.125.8212.18-0.025-0.5120.339-0.066
Clark, HunterSK111.833.313.728.87-0.540-0.168-0.066-0.258
Hall, AaronNM92.725.933.0311.68-0.2350.668-0.1480.095
Gawn, MaxME129.486.8110.3126.611.1810.5671.3721.040
Worpel, JamesHW113.622.207.1913.00-0.167-0.4950.653-0.003
Brayshaw, AngusME122.224.964.0611.24-0.4910.140-0.065-0.138
Shiels, LiamHW104.142.285.2311.650.047-0.4230.323-0.018
Byrne-Jones, DarcyPA112.107.454.1513.70-0.5180.714-0.0450.051
Graham, JackRI125.631.787.1714.580.296-0.5910.6480.118
Jiath, ChangkuothHW111.497.182.7811.45-0.6560.651-0.362-0.122
Tuohy, ZachGE103.118.144.2615.51-0.2131.0590.0790.308
Aish, JamesFR122.794.715.4612.97-0.3580.0840.256-0.006
Atley, ShaunNM112.185.232.589.98-0.4990.203-0.408-0.235
Duryea, TaylorWB121.548.323.0612.93-0.6460.914-0.295-0.009
Bowes, JackGC91.079.332.7413.14-0.6981.621-0.2290.231
Houston, DanPA103.466.444.5714.48-0.1250.6300.1570.221
Phillips, TomHW114.083.723.7311.53-0.061-0.145-0.143-0.116
Birchall, GrantBL120.928.342.1511.41-0.7890.919-0.505-0.125
Bolton, ShaiRI109.231.059.6519.931.548-0.7111.6640.834
Lukosius, JackGC114.739.044.3118.080.0871.080-0.0080.386
Duncan, MitchGE85.274.216.2015.680.6650.3320.9620.653
Acres, BlakeFR122.224.554.7711.55-0.4890.0470.098-0.115
OMeara, JaegerHW82.073.497.5513.11-0.3460.1041.3880.382
Greenwood, HughGC115.304.2611.2720.830.220-0.0201.5920.597
Parfitt, BrandanGE103.662.868.0814.60-0.074-0.2761.0440.232
Grundy, BrodieCW118.942.579.9621.461.242-0.3561.4980.795
Hill, BradleySK122.754.474.0411.26-0.3670.029-0.072-0.137
Doedee, TomAD120.3713.501.5615.44-0.9152.106-0.6410.184
Bailey, ZacBL127.652.206.9316.780.760-0.4940.5930.286
Scrimshaw, JackHW102.706.702.2711.67-0.3170.696-0.426-0.016
Weller, LachieGC115.593.935.6115.120.285-0.0970.2890.159
Green, TomGW104.581.776.6412.990.159-0.5510.6790.096
Warner, ChadSY125.081.837.1714.080.169-0.5790.6480.079
Markov, OlegGC112.367.592.4712.42-0.4560.745-0.432-0.048
Atkins, TomGE110.505.564.0810.14-0.8850.278-0.063-0.223
Menegola, SamGE94.013.955.2213.180.1280.1110.4660.235
Houli, BacharRI91.706.443.0311.18-0.4770.976-0.0700.143
Moore, DarcyCW122.4410.841.0914.37-0.4381.494-0.7500.102
May, StevenME110.3616.701.3718.43-0.9093.191-0.6570.541
Gray, RobbiePA118.241.985.8616.070.894-0.5450.3470.232
Jordon, JamesME123.253.105.2811.63-0.251-0.2880.214-0.108
Sheppard, BradWC120.636.681.088.38-0.8560.535-0.752-0.358
Cerra, AdamFR93.822.306.1512.270.172-0.2950.8870.255
Schoenberg, HarryAD125.201.636.4213.250.195-0.6240.4770.016
Cunningham, HarrySY120.936.711.929.56-0.7860.543-0.558-0.267
Rotham, JoshWC120.847.931.069.83-0.8080.824-0.756-0.246
Weitering, JacobCA120.7316.331.3518.41-0.8332.756-0.6890.411
Redman, MasonES111.965.951.579.48-0.5090.493-0.607-0.207
Powell, TomNM113.461.954.589.99-0.203-0.5520.054-0.234
Ryan, LukeFR90.2611.130.9612.34-0.9212.412-0.7060.262
Burton, RyanPA110.787.862.5011.14-0.8210.807-0.425-0.146
Drew, WillemPA113.262.927.9414.12-0.249-0.3290.8260.082
Andrews, HarrisBL120.6013.740.8015.14-0.8632.161-0.8160.161
Howard, DougalSK120.2415.590.7416.56-0.9452.585-0.8300.270
McDonald, TomME1211.133.603.4618.201.560-0.172-0.2030.395
Rivers, TrentME120.777.492.2010.46-0.8230.723-0.494-0.198
Broad, NathanRI121.149.771.9712.88-0.7391.247-0.547-0.013
Wilson, NathanFR110.9410.052.0213.01-0.7631.521-0.4940.088
Edwards, ShaneRI93.553.386.8213.750.0890.0351.0910.405
Sloane, RoryAD83.343.006.8713.210.1520.0361.3690.519
Wilkie, CallumSK120.379.091.2710.72-0.9161.090-0.707-0.178
Membrey, TimSK1210.862.673.0716.601.499-0.386-0.2940.273
Snelling, WillES116.112.373.9012.390.534-0.406-0.0200.036
Nankervis, TobyRI114.463.839.6217.910.120-0.0391.4130.498
Powell, WilGC111.029.441.6412.10-0.7651.171-0.623-0.072
Lever, JakeME120.9014.181.5316.61-0.7922.262-0.6490.274
Motlop, StevenPA114.921.862.509.280.132-0.573-0.425-0.289
Fogarty, LachieCA114.351.794.7210.860.092-0.5520.185-0.091
Dunkley, JoshWB62.732.865.7311.320.2540.3151.6370.735
Henderson, LachieGE112.0612.211.9816.24-0.5271.807-0.5460.245
Davies-Uniacke, LukeNM93.361.616.5111.49-0.054-0.5470.8310.077
Neal-Bullen, AlexME126.282.816.5615.650.445-0.3540.5080.200
Morrison, HarryHW113.512.913.009.42-0.194-0.330-0.311-0.278
Nelson, JacksonWC120.896.032.619.53-0.7960.386-0.399-0.269
Mayne, ChrisCW80.454.551.036.03-0.8450.570-0.644-0.306
Daniher, JoeBL1210.312.175.5217.991.371-0.5020.2690.379
Aliir, AliirPA110.4412.751.1814.37-0.8991.933-0.7280.102
Laverde, JaydenES120.677.901.409.98-0.8460.818-0.677-0.235
Williams, ZacCA93.084.474.8012.36-0.0540.3720.4730.263
Pickett, MarlionRI111.365.164.9311.46-0.6580.2950.238-0.042
Neale, LachieBL73.211.637.2612.100.265-0.3561.8630.591
Keath, AlexWB120.7610.151.8412.75-0.8261.335-0.577-0.023
Jonas, TomPA110.5816.361.4318.37-0.8662.763-0.6720.409
Thomas, TarrynNM117.921.886.3716.170.821-0.5670.4650.239
Cripps, JamieWC127.631.885.0614.580.756-0.5670.1640.117
Higgins, JackSK128.430.782.9212.140.940-0.820-0.328-0.070
Darcy, SeanFR117.120.389.1816.680.786-0.9051.3040.395
Frost, SamHW11-0.939.410.559.02-1.2151.164-0.874-0.308
Walker, TaylorAD1115.660.693.6920.032.928-0.827-0.0750.676
OBrien, ReillyAD126.173.318.3017.780.419-0.2380.9090.363
Naitanui, NicWC128.222.5815.1025.910.891-0.4062.4740.986
Greene, TobyGW913.420.794.2418.452.773-0.7780.1910.728
McIntosh, KamdynRI111.854.014.4210.27-0.5370.0060.108-0.141
Cole, TomWC120.896.051.878.81-0.7960.392-0.570-0.325
Wingard, ChadHW86.032.525.2413.800.909-0.2020.6580.455
Hickey, TomSY105.373.769.5018.630.4820.0381.6210.714
Naughton, AaronWB1213.110.272.9116.302.016-0.938-0.3300.249
Hoskin-Elliott, WillCW114.893.183.7411.800.226-0.203-0.061-0.013
Papley, TomSY129.680.564.0714.311.227-0.871-0.0630.097
Newnes, JackCA92.222.232.617.07-0.319-0.316-0.198-0.278
Cotchin, TrentRI81.942.726.2310.89-0.330-0.0611.1480.253
Darling, JackWC1214.550.783.0218.352.346-0.820-0.3060.407
de Goey, JordanCW119.220.824.3914.441.314-0.7930.1020.208
McCarthy, LincolnBL127.561.624.9514.130.739-0.6270.1390.083
Moore, DylanHW117.930.872.0910.890.824-0.801-0.519-0.165
Battle, JoshSK122.503.862.618.97-0.425-0.113-0.399-0.312
Pickett, KysaiahME129.581.324.2615.161.204-0.696-0.0210.162
Cox, NikES124.242.263.199.69-0.025-0.481-0.266-0.257
Kelly, JakeAD110.606.061.307.97-0.8490.521-0.674-0.334
Goldstein, ToddNM118.102.268.4818.840.864-0.4800.9510.445
Balta, NoahRI121.448.092.2311.77-0.6680.860-0.486-0.098
Williams, BaileyWB90.756.531.638.91-0.7711.002-0.500-0.089
Rowe, JamesAD125.980.852.739.570.376-0.805-0.371-0.266
Gibbons, MichaelCA114.991.974.4911.450.251-0.5050.127-0.042
Ham, BraydenES123.731.452.888.06-0.143-0.667-0.337-0.382
Hunt, JaydenME122.085.233.8611.17-0.5220.202-0.111-0.144
McInerney, JustinSY103.762.833.279.860.037-0.218-0.098-0.093
Starcevich, BrandonBL120.927.082.4210.42-0.7890.630-0.443-0.201
Hurn, ShannonWC70.786.390.868.04-0.6911.520-0.6590.057
Stephenson, JaidynNM85.891.963.7211.570.862-0.3810.1760.219
Hawkins, TomGE1113.390.883.3117.592.080-0.797-0.2380.348
Castagna, JasonRI126.630.812.8210.260.525-0.813-0.351-0.213
Colyer, TravisFR125.670.984.1910.840.304-0.774-0.037-0.169
Rampe, DaneSY90.757.871.5910.20-0.7701.412-0.5130.043
Murphy, MarcCA104.311.183.579.060.189-0.673-0.016-0.167
Blicavs, MarkGE103.646.456.3516.43-0.0800.6320.6050.386
Coffield, NickSK101.014.650.966.62-0.7220.282-0.734-0.391
Duggan, LiamWC71.312.732.196.23-0.4850.078-0.137-0.181
Young, LachieNM111.345.702.859.89-0.6930.311-0.343-0.242
Henry, JackGE102.876.272.5011.64-0.2740.585-0.367-0.018
McCartin, TomSY110.2710.120.9611.35-0.9331.539-0.758-0.051
Taylor, SamGW100.929.711.0111.63-0.7681.456-0.745-0.019
McDonald-Tipungwuti, AnthonyES1211.800.903.1815.881.714-0.792-0.2690.218
Heeney, IsaacSY108.680.892.5512.111.394-0.755-0.2960.114
Breust, LukeHW119.080.723.6413.451.089-0.833-0.1620.031
Aarts, JakeRI127.201.003.3311.520.655-0.770-0.235-0.117
Jackson, LukeME114.411.194.289.880.106-0.7010.073-0.174
Higgins, ShaunGE72.911.434.318.650.051-0.4830.5580.042
Webster, JimmySK100.236.031.247.50-0.9370.664-0.658-0.310
Spargo, CharlieME125.520.933.239.680.269-0.786-0.257-0.258
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Ling, MattSY10.000.000.000.00-1.000-1.000-1.000-1.000
Taylor, LewisSY10.000.000.000.00-1.000-1.000-1.000-1.000

Surprisingly, three each from the Dogs and Dees are leading the way so far, with Bontempelli having a career year to date. Up forward, Taylor Walker and Toby Greene are leading the way, with Harry McKay and Jack Darling not far behind.

Down back, Jacob Weitering is having a career year, with Steven May on the fast track to AA selection. Daniel Rich is also having a superb year to date, with Jayden Short and Jordan Dawson also performing well.

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