HPN will be covering this AFL Trade Period with roundup posts or progressive updates through the day. Watch for updates on social media.
The end of the first week of trade week was marked with slightly more activity than expected, with a lot of moving parts across the league. Most aren’t stars, but instead profile as potentially useful role players in their new locations.
Thursday saw two trades both featuring the exchange of a new feature of this trade period. For the first time, future picks from two years in the future were included in trades.
The 2027 draft is also notable for the insertion of seven extra Tasmanian picks in the first 13 selections of the draft. That means that the team finishing twelfth starts with pick 14 rather than pick 7. Tasmania will also get the first draft pick of every subsequent round. It’s also worth noting that Tasmania must trade some of those first round picks, but they’ll continue existing regardless.
HPN has factored these sliding picks into the future pick valuation:
HPN takes a side’s current ladder position as being the worth of the future pick values. While you could project future prospects out based on PAPLEY and PAV, it’s probably not of a significant enough improvement to just using the flat value to justify the effort.
It should also be noted they are likely to slide further as Tasmania signs up to 18 uncontracted players. Each signing will generate new compensation picks for former clubs. That compensation will both slide current picks still further, but also deflate the value of the current draft picks by adding new ones to many club’s hands, without commensurately greater list spots to fill.
Max Heath makes a small piece of history
For some players you have to squint a bit to see how they’ll fit in with their new teams. When Adelaide mentioned that Jordan Dawson might see some midfield time, you had to make some leaps in your head.
Max Heath is down the other end of the spectrum. Max Heath’s role at Melbourne – at least next year – is not only well known, it’s also similar to his role last year. Heath will be a young depth ruck at just 22 years old. He debuted for the Saints this year after being picked up in the 2021 mid-season draft. He will be roughly filling the spot vacated by the delisting of Tom Fullarton, and competing with Tom Campbell for any games missed by Max Gawn.
At some point Gawn will no longer be at the Dees, especially as he turns 34 this year. At the moment Melbourne appear content to stock their depth chart behind Gawn with relatively cheap depth from the Saints, with Campbell also coming across from St Kilda. Heath has been signed for three years, suggesting the Dees see some gametime in his future.
Heath has shown flashes in his limited AFL time, and has increasingly looked comfortable at VFL level. There’s at least a pathway for him to become a competent ruck at AFL level, even if that’s likely at least a year away. His physicality already is promising, which is at least a fair chunk of the battle for bigs in the modern AFL. If the rest follows, it might break right for Heath.
The trade is mostly notable for being the first instance of a trade of a pick two years in advance, the Dees offering up a future fourth from 2027, about the least valuable thing they could trade and have it still be a trade.
Verdict: notionally unfair in that Heath has little projection to speak of but the pick is also of little value. The upside all sits on whether Heath becomes the Demons’ ruck of the future.
Liam Ryan joins the influx to Moorabbin
Don’t look now but the Eagles are down to just four players from that 2018 premiership side.
At his best Ryan has spurred the Eagles attack on almost single-handedly in recent years, providing ability to contest above his height in the air and do damage at ground level. But Ryan is moving slowly away from his best, similar to what can be said about the rest of those 2018 Eagles.
Ryan turns 30 next year, and is reported to have signed a three year deal which could see him close to the conclusion of his career.
Ryan will hopefully provide yet another capable target up forward for a Saints side who struggled to capitalize on the scoreboard in recent years.
Verdict: fair trade. The slide represented by the two future picks reflects a similar valuation of Ryan to HPN’s.
Brody Mihocek moves to Demonland
If there’s a side that needs another target up forward more than the Saints and Eagles, it’s the Demons. Recent years for the Demons have seen gains made across the ground squandered by an ineffective set up inside 50. The Demons have tried a number of things through that time all to little avail.
A lot of their attempts have fallen just a bit short. It looks like Matthew Jefferson may not pan out at AFL level, with the draft year projections just falling short at the top level. After a fair time experimenting, it seems clear that Harrison Petty is a better defender than a forward. Jacob van Rooyen competes as hard as anyone, but seems to be just a little too small to be that centrepiece key position forward at AFL level. There have been some forward successes – Bayley Fritsch remains good, Pickett is a weapon and Melksham has remained consistently solid – but that hasn’t spurred a successful unit.
After sitting out the KPF market in recent years the Demons have finally dove in. The issue is the guy they’ve grabbed also might not be one.
Mihocek isn’t a contested marking beast or one who thrives on bringing the ball to deck. He doesn’t always play as the fulcrum of the attack, and instead attacks around the edges for mismatches and in space. Melbourne already has plenty of those types in their forward line – the tall small archetype – and has deployed them with similar levels of success. He’s roughly the same size as van Rooyen and Fritsch, and plays somewhat similarly to the latter. If they role into the season with these three in the key roles alongside some combination of Melksham, Fritsch, Langford, Chandler and Sharp…then they may not have a player who can contest “jump ball” contests or effectively halve kicks to the hotspot when outnumbered.
While King’s forward system is unknown, there could be some role duplication unless there’s a really good method behind it.
But sometimes you have to bet on talent, and Mihocek is undeniably talented.
Given that Mihocek will be 33 next year and was a free agent, Collingwood have made out well here to obtain a usable pick in the third round next season.
Melbourne made a trade simply to preserve compensation for the Charlie Spargo free agency move to North Melbourne, and have paid to be able to do so. Melbourne have obtained immediate value onfield, for however long Mihocek continues.
Verdict: unfair trade, but Melbourne have done this to hang onto a higher pick. The free agency compensation system continues to be flawed.
Campbell Chesser takes the navy blue
Campbell Chesser might be one of the hardest players to evaluate in the league. The former pick 14 in the 2021 Draft, Chesser has struggled to get consistent football dating back to his under 18 days. He’s suffered several knee injuries, ankle concerns and form dips.
And yet…there might be something there. The outside midfielder shows flashes every now and again that he might be something to the right team. He’s just 22 years old, so there should be some development still there.
When he was drafted there was some hope that he’d develop into an inside-outside two-way running midfielder – the prototype of what you’d want in an AFL level midfield. Those injuries have meant that he hasn’t been able to show much on the inside yet beyond WAFL level.
Chesser is valued relatively lowly based on missing a lot of games so far in his career, and this results in a somewhat lopsided looking trade.
Verdict: somewhat unfair trade. The trade is moderately generous to the Eagles, but Chesser playing to his 2024 form for a few years will likely make it worthwhile.
Additionally, the pick for Carlton was likely to get eaten up in bid matching for Charlie Dean.
Ben Ainsworth and Corey Durdin find new homes
In a perfect world football trades exist to make each club involved stronger, re-balancing strengths and weaknesses across the league. This trade is an example of three clubs with three different sets of needs and goals mostly achieving what they want.
Let’s start with Port Adelaide. Last year Port sat near the bottom for forward 50 ground ball gets and mid-pack for tackles inside 50. For Port’s high press to work there needs to be the appropriate pressure higher up the ground. Corey Durdin – formerly of Carlton – should come in to help that. He’s not the type of player with his name in lights, more someone who gets stuff done. At worst he applies pressure on their existing forward group. At best he becomes a feature of their pressure forward set up for the next half-decade plus.
Port Adelaide also have half an eye on the 2026, when Dougie Cochrane might be available as a NGA player and might be one of the top prospects in the draft. While the bid matching rules will change before then, getting extra capital next year might help them move up to match him.
Carlton, with an uncertain hold on Charlie Curnow, have decided to boost their attacking power inside 50 by bringing in Ben Ainsworth. He’s not an “upgrade” on Durdin, but something slightly different. He adds a real attacking threat to their smalls contingent. At one point there was the idea that Ainsworth may become a midfielder more regularly, but that time has seemingly past. Nevertheless, he should provide an extra pathway to goal for Carlton. They’ve handed over the biggest price here – a second rounder next year.
Each progressing year sees the Gold Coast pressed to find capital to match bids for their academy talent. This year the Suns have two of the top four or so kids in the draft. There’s also other noteworthy Suns academy products later on, meaning it’s going to need a lot to bring them in. With the Suns getting better on field, that means they increasingly need to churn talent through the club. Ainsworth played every game for them last year, but will get pushed for his spot in the team with the emergence of Lombard and Rodgers. The promise of their upcoming crop is what they’ve valued as worth it.
Verdict: generally fair trade.