Port Adelaide are keen to cause bounces, but awful at winning them Usually a team with a dominant ruckman is somewhat keen to get them involved. With a dominant ruckman, a team can get first use of the ball and go back on the attack. So it stands to reason
Continue reading »Post Round 6 opponent-adjusted team ratings #AFL
Last week we introduced a fairly simple method of rating team strength based on statistics derived from inside 50s, which correlate strongly with winning teams (the premier usually sits near the top of the pile in these measures). The ratings are three simple statistical ratios: Midfield Score (inside 50 ratio) Offence
Continue reading »Parramatta should still make finals if they keep up current form
News has broken today that the Parramatta Eels have been docked all their competition points for the 2016 season so far as well as being fined and having officials fired, as a result of salary cap cheating. The reset of their standing to zero premiership points leaves them with 15
Continue reading »Let’s rate team strength (and do a round 6 preview)
For the past few months HPN has been looking at how to evaluate efficiency and movement. In the last few of our weekly review/previews we have been dropping little nuggets here and there – scoring shots per inside 50, goals conceded per opposition inside 50 – to try to look
Continue reading »Is Brisbane that bad? Are Freo? (an AFL round 5 preview)
This is the fourth weekly wrap up/preview for the 2016 AFL by HPN. Brisbane might not really be that bad (offensively) Only 16 teams since 2000 have gone through a season with a goal kicking accuracy of less than 50%, with the lowest being the inaugural Gold Coast squad in
Continue reading »Introducing The Murphy Score (and a #AFL round 4 preview)
This is the third weekly wrap up/preview for the 2016 AFL by HPN. Collingwood’s large problem Before the season, Collingwood were nearly everyone’s breakout pick to make the eight this year, if not even more. Even we hopped on board based on entirely sound observations from available data. Spoiler alert:
Continue reading »HPN’s #AFL Round 3 Preview
This is the second edition of HPN’s weekly AFL preview. It’s probably better than last week’s piece. Chaos in the first two rounds In the first two rounds we have had the following results: Geelong d Hawthorn GWS d Geelong Melbourne d GWS Essendon d Melbourne Gold Coast d Essendon
Continue reading »What Did We Learn From Round 1? #AFL
Plus the Lowbrown and a couple of other things. We’re going to do weekly round-ups this year on HPN, and this time we mean it. Honestly. Just trust us. Winners v Losers For the first time in AFL history the nine winners from round 1 travel this week to play
Continue reading »What does the “Collingwood 11” really mean? #AFL
This week there has been a lot of lamentable confusion and conjecture around the reporting of the illicit drug positive test rates among AFL players. HPN has also noticed that there hasn’t necessarily been a lot of fact involved in the scrum of opinion. So what are the facts around
Continue reading »HPN’s Statistical 2016 AFL Ladder Prediction #afl #aflstats
We’ve already run our eye over the 2016 Super Rugby seasons, and the current NRL season, so HPN decided to throw caution to the wind and attempt to predict the 2016 AFL season. Like last season’s prediction, this projection shouldn’t be used as exact gospel on how a team should
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