HPN on ABC: Christian Petracca and the best players of 2021 (so far)

This week on the ABC, HPN had a look at what makes Christian Petracca great and whether it was wise to sign Petracca to such a long contract. It’s a good piece, and well worth a read.

As is normally the case, there’s some overflow information that didn’t make it into the piece for whatever reason. Here’s the best and rest of Christian Petracca.

Beat the internet with Christian Petracca

The thing with the internet becoming ubiquitous in modern society is that everything seems to be recorded, even things that maybe should be forgotten. In order to write each week, HPN undertakes what is now called a “desktop review” by consultants everywhere.

Basically, that’s a lot of researching and reading. Thanks to the modern condition of being terminally online, it’s much easier researching younger players than older. Finding footage from Lachie Neale before he made the AFL took hours. Finding similar footage for Christian Petracca took seconds.

There was a series of articles, videos and podcasts focusing on his draft year – something that would have been impossible just two decades ago. This article by Callum Twomey in particular shines a light on his character pre-draft.

But this probably isn’t the best draft-related content involving Petracca. Let’s go back to the wild and crazy times of… 2019, where the AFL looked to ramp up its draft content.

Think Taskmaster without comedians. Or jokes. But the vibe is there. Well, something is there. This isn’t the only part – it’s an entire series.

The piece touched on where Petracca came from – Warrandyte. In his u18 year, five players from the smallish area made the Vic Metro squad – basically unheard of. Of the rest of the crop, Jason Castagna (actually from beyond Warrandyte) is probably the best known.

Petracca narrating?

Apparently this website is a partnership between Melbourne FC and Monash. Enjoy it. Breathe it in.

The piece also talked about his journey back from injury. It was a long and arduous path, as documented by then Melbourne physio Joel Ames. Local paper, the Warrandyte Diary, also talked to Petracca while he was injured.

Here’s a quote from the piece:

MD: And the family?

CP: They’ve done everything, I get home, they’ve probably seen I’ve had a bad day and they give a lot of sup- port. My brothers haven’t changed and that’s probably the best thing, they’ve kept on telling me to suck it up. I don’t want them to change just because I’ve done a knee, or become an AFL footballer or anything, but it’s good because we haven’t changed at all. Mum and Dad have been really good the whole year, even off the field, just helping me through and it’s what I needed.

That’s not everything on Petracca, but to take a leaf from the books of the Petracca brothers, suck it up.

So how much is Petracca worth?

The reported terms of the Petracca deal are seven years, a little more than a million a year. That’s a lot of cash.

Last year HPN built a Salary Prediction Tool based on our PAPLEY prediction system. While the system hasn’t been fully updated for 2021 yet, a quick look at the system estimates that his “fair” value, based on the current TPP amount and excluding third party deals, is about $950,000.

That puts it at a slight overpay, just over odds absent other context. However, Petracca also has a year on his current deal before his extension kicks in, likely at a far lower salary negotiated when he was a lesser player. When factoring this in, and the likelihood that the TPP cap will rise over the next eight years, Petracca’s reported salary is in line with what he “should” earn.

That’s before the third party allowance is considered, which should make it even more favourable for Melbourne. Without clear salary information, the best that can be worked out is if it seems in the ballpark of fair, but from the outside it seems to be the case.

And who is the best so far in 2021?

As always, HPN is tracking the PAV of each player in the league. Two months is a fair enough sample size to see who is performing at their peak, and who is struggling a little.

Player
TM
GM
Off PAV
Def PAV
Mid PAV
Total PAV
Off mPAV
Def mPAV
Mid mPAV
Total mPAV
Mitchell, TomHW224.773.679.1817.620.098-0.1571.1120.351
Macrae, JackWB225.924.1614.8924.960.361-0.0442.4240.914
Wines, OlliePA226.134.0813.1123.330.411-0.0622.0160.788
Laird, RoryAD224.283.7511.2619.29-0.016-0.1361.5890.479
Oliver, ClaytonME225.544.5914.9825.110.2740.0552.4460.925
Merrett, ZachES226.215.3710.6022.180.4290.2351.4380.701
Miller, ToukGC214.894.6710.0819.640.1780.1251.4300.578
Parish, DarcyES226.993.0215.3825.390.607-0.3052.5360.946
Walsh, SamCA225.532.539.2517.310.271-0.4171.1280.327
Steele, JackSK226.484.3013.0323.810.490-0.0111.9970.825
Petracca, ChristianME228.882.9314.5026.311.042-0.3262.3341.017
Lyons, JarrydBL226.383.4712.3122.160.467-0.2011.8320.699
Keays, BenAD226.203.9311.2721.400.426-0.0961.5930.641
Parker, LukeSY226.663.2112.2222.090.531-0.2611.8110.694
Guthrie, CameronGE203.783.9310.3318.03-0.045-0.0071.6130.520
Bontempelli, MarcusWB2210.136.1714.7231.021.3300.4182.3871.378
Crisp, JackCW223.838.407.1619.39-0.1190.9310.6480.487
Lloyd, JakeSY211.5111.612.5315.65-0.6371.798-0.3910.257
Taranto, TimGW225.693.528.8218.030.309-0.1901.0290.383
Simpkin, JyNM224.563.1210.0417.720.049-0.2821.3090.359
Boak, TravisPA215.633.1811.8920.700.357-0.2331.8650.663
Sheed, DomWC224.693.5810.1018.370.080-0.1771.3230.409
Gaff, AndrewWC213.693.426.8313.94-0.111-0.1760.6460.120
Rich, DanielBL222.6614.514.1821.36-0.3882.338-0.0380.637
Seedsman, PaulAD226.794.687.1018.570.5620.0760.6330.423
Brayshaw, AndrewFR203.944.827.8916.65-0.0040.2180.9970.404
Hall, AaronNM202.8110.082.9415.83-0.2891.551-0.2570.335
Hopper, JacobGW214.953.1710.6918.810.192-0.2361.5750.511
Mundy, DavidFR225.703.4410.8820.020.312-0.2091.5020.535
Kelly, JoshGW216.304.498.2819.060.5180.0810.9940.531
McCluggage, HughBL227.633.998.6620.280.755-0.0820.9910.555
Short, JaydenRI221.9611.763.2016.92-0.5491.704-0.2630.297
Dale, BaileyWB223.4610.473.9217.85-0.2041.407-0.0980.368
Ziebell, JackNM210.9811.881.4014.25-0.7641.862-0.6640.145
Salem, ChristianME211.7810.663.3415.78-0.5711.569-0.1950.268
Crouch, BradSK203.422.948.5914.95-0.134-0.2571.1730.261
Daniel, CalebWB212.777.814.6215.20-0.3330.8830.1130.221
Amon, KarlPA225.455.517.3618.330.2540.2680.6930.405
Smith, BaileyWB224.553.468.3216.320.046-0.2050.9130.252
Zorko, DayneBL218.334.5512.0124.901.0080.0961.8951.000
Kennedy, JoshSY213.772.229.6215.62-0.091-0.4651.3190.254
Ward, CallanGW225.593.677.6516.910.285-0.1550.7600.297
Serong, CalebFR224.922.449.9617.320.132-0.4391.2910.328
Liberatore, TomWB215.293.6015.0623.950.275-0.1322.6280.924
Sidebottom, SteeleCW214.003.256.2813.54-0.036-0.2160.5140.087
Selwood, JoelGE214.923.6510.9619.530.185-0.1191.6400.569
Curnow, EdCA225.392.647.6915.720.240-0.3930.7690.205
Dawson, JordanSY223.8211.683.8319.34-0.1211.686-0.1180.483
Mills, CallumSY183.985.118.6217.710.1190.4351.4240.659
Cumming, IsaacGW221.2710.962.5314.76-0.7081.520-0.4180.131
Hind, NickES223.717.184.4515.34-0.1470.6510.0240.176
Stewart, TomGE201.3213.132.0916.54-0.6672.323-0.4700.395
Smith, IsaacGE215.097.215.0617.370.2270.7380.2200.395
OMeara, JaegerHW183.433.428.9615.81-0.036-0.0371.5180.482
Cripps, PatrickCA205.121.948.5415.600.295-0.5101.1610.315
Langdon, EdME213.934.664.0212.60-0.0530.122-0.0330.012
Hunter, LachieWB215.843.816.2715.920.406-0.0810.5120.279
Menegola, SamGE204.474.756.4615.680.1310.2020.6340.322
Maynard, BraydenCW221.2211.212.4914.91-0.7191.578-0.4280.143
Swallow, DavidGC213.033.945.4112.38-0.269-0.0510.303-0.006
Kelly, TimWC194.562.059.3415.950.214-0.4541.4870.416
Anderson, NoahGC201.883.726.4512.05-0.525-0.0600.6330.016
Ridley, JordanES210.5913.451.0815.11-0.8592.240-0.7400.214
Baker, LiamRI223.604.735.0813.41-0.1720.0890.1680.028
Heppell, DysonES182.116.672.8111.59-0.4080.875-0.2100.086
Byrne-Jones, DarcyPA222.317.004.2113.52-0.4680.609-0.0310.037
Shiels, LiamHW213.622.295.8311.73-0.128-0.4490.404-0.058
Sinclair, JackSK212.777.084.0413.88-0.3330.705-0.0280.115
Redden, JackWC182.282.726.5111.50-0.359-0.2360.8290.078
Lukosius, JackGC223.8910.033.7017.62-0.1051.306-0.1490.351
Davies-Uniacke, LukeNM203.822.507.9214.24-0.034-0.3681.0030.201
Houston, DanPA213.725.784.5514.05-0.1040.3920.0960.128
Hill, BradleySK222.485.333.8311.64-0.4290.226-0.120-0.108
Smith, BrodieAD212.8110.574.0717.45-0.3241.548-0.0210.401
Tuohy, ZachGE193.287.253.8514.37-0.1270.9300.0250.276
Worpel, JamesHW204.312.367.4214.080.090-0.4040.8770.188
Saad, AdamCA223.368.244.0015.60-0.2260.895-0.0800.196
Ellis, BrandonGC182.634.243.5210.39-0.2610.191-0.010-0.027
de Goey, JordanCW208.372.286.0716.711.118-0.4240.5350.410
Florent, OliverSY224.114.356.0514.51-0.0550.0020.3910.113
Ross, SebastianSK203.163.806.0713.03-0.200-0.0400.5360.099
Graham, JackRI225.482.037.1014.610.261-0.5330.6340.120
Hardwick, BlakeHW201.2910.311.9113.51-0.6741.608-0.5170.139
Pendlebury, ScottCW184.292.626.7813.680.205-0.2630.9050.282
Cerra, AdamFR184.823.017.4615.290.355-0.1541.0970.433
Aish, JamesFR222.455.414.9412.80-0.4370.2440.137-0.019
Ryan, LukeFR190.3512.771.1714.30-0.9062.402-0.6880.269
Scrimshaw, JackHW202.446.152.3010.90-0.3820.557-0.417-0.081
Bailey, ZacBL227.732.937.5818.250.778-0.3260.7440.399
Noble, JohnCW222.025.102.489.60-0.5360.174-0.429-0.264
Parfitt, BrandanGE214.222.068.2114.490.017-0.5050.9790.164
Phillips, TomHW224.442.733.5310.710.022-0.371-0.188-0.179
Schoenberg, HarryAD224.442.316.6713.420.021-0.4680.5340.029
Gawn, MaxME229.105.5311.6526.271.0930.2711.6791.014
Drew, WillemPA222.692.908.9214.51-0.381-0.3331.0510.112
Bowes, JackGC191.377.882.4111.66-0.6361.099-0.3580.035
Mayne, ChrisCW170.515.251.216.97-0.8480.564-0.640-0.308
Cunnington, BenNM153.791.968.1413.900.279-0.3381.7460.562
Sloane, RoryAD183.293.827.8014.90-0.0760.0741.1910.397
Bolton, ShaiRI208.700.988.8118.491.202-0.7521.2280.560
Burton, RyanPA221.238.882.9913.11-0.7171.043-0.3120.005
Birchall, GrantBL211.467.442.4711.36-0.6490.792-0.405-0.087
Brayshaw, AngusME222.284.294.1810.74-0.477-0.013-0.039-0.176
Powell, WilGC221.1810.001.8413.02-0.7281.300-0.578-0.002
Neale, LachieBL153.972.158.0414.150.338-0.2761.7130.591
Thomas, TarrynNM218.592.396.5917.571.070-0.4240.5880.411
Grundy, BrodieCW208.542.169.0319.731.160-0.4541.2850.664
Adams, TaylorCW142.872.088.1313.090.036-0.2471.9400.576
Robinson, MitchBL203.995.556.2215.760.0100.4040.5730.329
Duryea, TaylorWB211.737.523.0012.26-0.5830.812-0.277-0.016
Howe, DanielHW203.153.802.979.92-0.202-0.040-0.248-0.163
Whitfield, LachieGW152.684.222.869.76-0.0960.425-0.0370.097
Redman, MasonES212.007.172.0611.23-0.5180.727-0.503-0.098
Stephenson, JaidynNM196.472.044.5213.030.723-0.4580.2050.157
May, StevenME200.5416.541.2218.30-0.8623.184-0.6910.544
McInerney, JustinSY203.463.773.7510.98-0.125-0.046-0.052-0.074
Martin, DustinRI167.121.157.3215.601.251-0.6361.3160.644
Billings, JackSK185.362.823.6111.790.506-0.2070.0160.105
Fyfe, NatFR153.232.166.9912.380.090-0.2721.3590.392
Quaynor, IsaacCW201.428.222.0511.69-0.6411.080-0.481-0.014
Weitering, JacobCA220.6516.051.1117.82-0.8502.692-0.7450.366
Wingard, ChadHW166.471.655.7613.881.047-0.4780.8210.463
Hewett, GeorgeSY201.142.964.188.28-0.710-0.2500.056-0.301
Perryman, HarryGW162.326.192.5411.05-0.2660.958-0.1970.165
Langford, KyleES174.332.154.6311.120.290-0.3590.3770.103
Jordon, JamesME222.752.974.3410.06-0.369-0.316-0.001-0.229
Cotchin, TrentRI172.183.046.9912.20-0.352-0.0951.0800.211
Ash, LachieGW211.275.202.418.88-0.6940.254-0.419-0.286
Darcy, SeanFR217.891.3110.4819.690.902-0.6841.5250.581
Green, TomGW172.991.635.6010.23-0.110-0.5140.6680.015
Doedee, TomAD210.7511.201.3613.31-0.8201.698-0.6720.069
Sheppard, BradWC200.905.381.377.64-0.7730.360-0.654-0.356
Atley, ShaunNM201.194.601.387.17-0.6980.165-0.652-0.395
Neal-Bullen, AlexME226.012.596.8915.490.382-0.4050.5850.187
Lever, JakeME220.7714.551.5116.82-0.8242.346-0.6530.290
Rampe, DaneSY190.579.641.5811.78-0.8481.566-0.5800.046
Docherty, SamCA141.366.042.449.84-0.5081.183-0.1190.185
Snelling, WillES194.752.654.3911.790.264-0.2950.1700.047
Aliir, AliirPA220.6112.911.3214.84-0.8601.969-0.6960.138
Atkins, TomGE190.704.313.228.23-0.8150.147-0.142-0.270
Rivers, TrentME220.928.022.2911.23-0.7900.845-0.473-0.139
Naitanui, NicWC228.682.1015.0925.860.996-0.5182.4700.982
Haynes, NickGW190.807.671.329.80-0.7871.043-0.648-0.130
Sholl, LachlanAD192.592.873.088.54-0.310-0.236-0.181-0.242
Wilkie, CallumSK220.3410.461.0611.86-0.9221.406-0.756-0.091
Frost, SamHW22-0.288.661.009.38-1.0650.993-0.771-0.281
Hickey, TomSY206.714.2010.2321.140.6980.0631.5880.783
Cunningham, HarrySY200.836.291.728.84-0.7890.590-0.564-0.254
Hurn, ShannonWC150.926.491.358.76-0.6891.190-0.546-0.015
Harmes, JamesME152.702.475.4910.66-0.091-0.1660.8520.198
Williams, BaileyWB191.348.062.4511.84-0.6441.146-0.3480.051
Andrews, HarrisBL210.3513.630.8314.81-0.9152.285-0.8010.190
Howard, DougalSK210.2914.460.9615.71-0.9292.484-0.7690.262
Jiath, ChangkuothHW161.185.862.199.23-0.6270.854-0.309-0.027
McGrath, AndrewES142.082.565.4110.05-0.248-0.0750.9570.211
Jonas, TomPA220.6514.911.3816.94-0.8502.429-0.6820.299
Daicos, JoshCW173.321.984.109.40-0.012-0.4110.220-0.067
Acres, BlakeFR182.133.214.249.58-0.401-0.0990.191-0.103
Webster, JimmySK200.687.101.459.23-0.8280.796-0.633-0.222
Daniher, JoeBL2211.501.374.8217.691.645-0.6840.1070.356
Bews, JedGE221.644.392.698.72-0.6230.010-0.382-0.332
Cripps, JamieWC228.441.404.8914.730.941-0.6790.1250.129
Hoskin-Elliott, WillCW205.282.663.3211.250.336-0.328-0.161-0.051
Goldstein, ToddNM228.932.458.4819.851.054-0.4370.9500.522
Membrey, TimSK2110.482.383.0415.891.524-0.426-0.2680.277
Heeney, IsaacSY209.531.473.8214.821.410-0.627-0.0340.249
Newnes, JackCA192.542.893.188.60-0.325-0.231-0.154-0.237
Higgins, ShaunGE162.961.514.118.57-0.065-0.5220.299-0.096
Kelly, JakeAD200.647.061.258.94-0.8380.786-0.685-0.246
Moore, DylanHW208.011.192.5711.781.026-0.698-0.349-0.007
Treloar, AdamWB133.391.455.4910.330.318-0.4341.1360.340
Laverde, JaydenES220.378.331.069.77-0.9140.916-0.756-0.251
Rotham, JoshWC190.526.870.968.35-0.8630.831-0.743-0.258
Jones, ZakSK133.001.855.6210.480.169-0.2791.1880.360
Madgen, JackCW190.826.081.067.96-0.7810.618-0.718-0.293
Wilson, NathanFR181.118.971.9312.00-0.6881.521-0.4580.125
Stringer, JakeES1810.961.048.9020.902.082-0.7091.5010.958
Dunstan, LukeSK122.011.566.5810.15-0.152-0.3431.7760.427
Cole, TomWC220.734.971.787.49-0.8310.143-0.590-0.426
Rozee, ConnorPA196.362.124.0112.490.694-0.4350.0690.109
Greene, TobyGW1712.420.653.8516.922.697-0.8070.1470.679
Hawkins, TomGE2212.920.633.5117.061.972-0.856-0.1920.308
Dangerfield, PatrickGE134.472.267.5214.250.740-0.1211.9260.849
Henry, JackGE212.458.751.8813.08-0.4101.108-0.5460.050
Papley, TomSY2211.180.704.3716.261.572-0.8390.0060.246
Blicavs, MarkGE213.796.476.6616.92-0.0860.5600.6040.359
McDonald, TomME208.832.653.3814.861.235-0.330-0.1440.254
Edwards, ShaneRI163.012.964.8410.81-0.048-0.0630.5310.140
Henderson, LachieGE181.5410.181.6113.33-0.5671.862-0.5480.249
OBrien, ReillyAD205.783.377.7116.860.462-0.1480.9500.422
Higgins, JackSK197.600.562.8611.021.025-0.851-0.240-0.022
Bergman, MilesPA212.543.532.348.41-0.388-0.151-0.436-0.325
McCartin, TomSY210.4210.711.0912.21-0.9001.579-0.738-0.019
Impey, JarmanHW131.594.261.807.65-0.3810.659-0.299-0.007
Ballard, CharlieGC210.467.920.859.23-0.8900.909-0.796-0.259
Gray, RobbiePA165.761.364.7211.840.820-0.5700.4920.248
Grimes, DylanRI210.648.201.4310.27-0.8450.975-0.655-0.175
McCarthy, LincolnBL228.991.554.1414.681.067-0.643-0.0480.126
Himmelberg, HarryGW2210.262.212.2914.761.359-0.492-0.4720.132
Markov, OlegGC171.375.011.628.00-0.5930.490-0.517-0.206
Pickett, MarlionRI181.563.483.989.02-0.562-0.0230.119-0.155
Colyer, TravisFR225.681.353.5310.550.306-0.690-0.189-0.191
Roughead, JordanCW210.4911.231.0412.75-0.8821.705-0.7500.024
Motlop, StevenPA173.921.522.207.640.167-0.548-0.346-0.242
McEvoy, BenHW227.044.045.1116.180.618-0.0710.1740.241
Houli, BacharRI121.214.742.088.03-0.4900.997-0.1210.129
Starcevich, BrandonBL220.857.042.2310.13-0.8040.619-0.486-0.224
Newman, NicCA140.935.151.317.39-0.6620.860-0.526-0.109
Dixon, CharliePA2211.132.593.6217.341.560-0.405-0.1670.329
Jackson, LukeME215.411.544.0911.030.303-0.630-0.016-0.114
Hunt, JaydenME201.854.743.399.98-0.5310.200-0.143-0.158
Pickett, KysaiahME228.561.444.3114.310.968-0.669-0.0080.097
Lycett, ScottPA185.473.017.7816.260.537-0.1541.1880.524
Tucker, DarcyFR161.032.442.095.57-0.673-0.227-0.338-0.413
Smith, DevonES195.361.023.6710.050.428-0.728-0.023-0.108
Gulden, ErrolSY176.111.634.0711.810.819-0.5160.2110.172
Lambert, KaneRI133.141.612.977.720.223-0.3730.1550.002
Lemmens, SeanGC210.215.401.527.14-0.9480.300-0.633-0.427
Darling, JackWC2211.261.132.9815.371.590-0.740-0.3150.178
McInerney, OscarBL216.825.0211.0022.840.6420.2101.6510.835
Dunkley, JoshWB111.902.194.198.28-0.1240.0060.9250.269
Nankervis, TobyRI163.633.397.5914.610.1470.0731.4000.540
Thomas, JoshCW205.111.142.769.010.293-0.712-0.301-0.240
Idun, ConnorGW210.726.631.288.63-0.8270.597-0.691-0.307
Duggan, LiamWC141.173.351.966.47-0.5780.210-0.293-0.220
Williams, ZacCA142.673.653.429.74-0.0350.3200.2360.174
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Williams, DylanPA10.030.000.110.13-0.873-1.019-0.459-0.783
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Comben, CharlieNM10.190.060.040.29-0.061-0.701-0.789-0.517
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Ambrose, PatrickES10.050.010.020.08-0.730-0.967-0.901-0.866
Chandler, KadeME50.02-0.020.010.02-0.975-1.016-0.989-0.993
Ainsworth, BraydenWC20.000.040.050.09-1.000-0.903-0.863-0.922
Ballenden, ConnorBL1-0.020.110.000.09-1.095-0.441-0.993-0.843
Jong, LinWB10.05-0.010.060.10-0.750-1.035-0.698-0.828
Worrell, JoshAD10.000.140.010.15-1.000-0.310-0.926-0.745
McEntee, JedPA10.000.000.000.00-1.000-1.000-1.000-1.000
Cavarra, BenWB10.050.010.060.12-0.750-0.947-0.713-0.803
Ryan, SamsonRI1-0.020.030.000.01-1.102-0.845-0.993-0.980
Ling, MattSY10.000.000.000.00-1.000-1.000-1.000-1.000

Surprisingly, three each from the Dogs and Dees are leading the way so far, with Bontempelli having a career year to date. Up forward, Taylor Walker and Toby Greene are leading the way, with Harry McKay and Jack Darling not far behind.

Down back, Jacob Weitering is having a career year, with Steven May on the fast track to AA selection. Daniel Rich is also having a superb year to date, with Jayden Short and Jordan Dawson also performing well.

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