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Tag: hpn

March 2, 2016 admin

HPN’s Statistical 2016 NRL Ladder Prediction – Or how stats can’t account for off-field incidents #NRL

If you’ve clicked on this article from another website (such as Twitter or Reddit), you will have likely seen the lead image as a thumbnail. Yes, the one with the much maligned Roosters as the eventual minor premiers. No, we aren’t trolling. Even as I type this the odds of

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November 5, 2015 admin

Introducing the 2015 HPN Consensus Phantom Draft #AFL

At Hurling People Now we do not watch a lot of under-18 football. While we love a good bit of local footy, we have neither the time, the money, or the interest to travel 600km to see the nations’ best juniors. What we do have is a spreadsheet. Several in fact.

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October 29, 2015 admin

Strength of Schedule in the 2016 AFL Fixture

It’s AFL fixture time again, and that means plenty of attempts to evaluate the unbalanced AFL fixture and work out who’s got the soft ride and who’s being screwed by a tough draw. This post is our analysis based on a number of Strength of Schedule calculations. If you want

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October 23, 2015 admin

It’s OVER – Saying goodbye to the 2015 AFL Trade Period

After a hectic last day, the 2015 AFL Trade Period is officially over! Here’s a quick “by-the-numbers” look: 37 trades were lodged; 4 Free Agents moved clubs; 3 Compensation picks were generated; 15 trades involved future draft picks; 7 trades involved draft picks alone; 3 trades were made involving more

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October 23, 2015 admin

In Yarran Richmond Trusts #afltrades

Richmond fill one of their most glaring needs at the deadline, and Carlton accumulate another high pick. Carlton value in = 980 points – Pick 19. Richmond value in = 1312 points – Chris Yarran. Verdict – Unfair trade (Richmond gains 332 points of pick and player value, or 1.34

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October 22, 2015 admin

Bastinac, Aish and a variety of draft picks change hands near the death #AFLtrades

Collingwood value in: 2756 points – James Aish (1306 points), pick 34 (840 points), pick 53 (610 points). Value out: 3410 points – pick 26 (910 points), pick 28 (890 points), pick 47 (700 points), 2016 2nd rounder ~ pick 26 (910 points). Total = -654 points. North Melbourne value

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October 22, 2015 admin

Pick swap – Hawthorn 53 and 58 for GWS 48 #AFLtrades

A simple win-win swap of picks, not a “loophole”, not evidence of a broken system. Hawthorn value in: 690 points (pick 48) GWS value in: 1130 points (pick 55 – 585 points, pick 58 – 545 points) Verdict: theoretically unfair but practically win-win. GWS get back 1.63 points of value for what they

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October 21, 2015 admin

Tomas Bugg and the ritualistic exchange of picks #afltrades

Greater Western Sydney value in = 2460 points – Pick 10 (1230 points), Pick 43 (750 points) and Pick 63 (480 points). Melbourne value in = 2873 points – Tomas Bugg (1473 points) and pick 7 (1400 points). Verdict – Fair trade (Melbourne gains 413 points of pick and player

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October 21, 2015 admin

The Carlton 5, and Menzel to Adelaide #afltrades

Carlton essentially recruit five fringe players in exchange for Troy Menzel and Lachie Henderson and draft pick scraps. Menzel for Kerridge Carlton value in: 1713 points – Sam Kerridge (823 points), Pick 28 – 890 points. Adelaide value in: 1351 points – Troy Menzel. Verdict: Fair, and despite popular perceptions, in

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October 21, 2015 admin

Every Rosa Has Its Thorn #afltrades

West Coast value in = 870 points – Pick 31. Gold Coast value in = 318 points – Matt Rosa. Verdict – Unfair trade (West Coast gains 552 points of pick and player value, or 2.74 points back for every point given up). Gold Coast, after having acquired a number

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